To develop his clients' vast land holdings, attorney Glenn Storch met with Volusia and Brevard county officials, bordering property owners and conservation groups.

They talked about roads. They talked about water. They discussed residential densities and jobs creation, debated how much land should be preserved, explored the impact on school construction planning. The company pulled together a panel discussion of national experts to critique their plans in public.

"We have spent four years thinking about how to do the right thing, and we're only halfway there," Storch said recently.

Having convinced elected officials in both counties to propose changes to their long-range growth plans to accommodate the Farmton project, the last thing Storch would want to do is mount an election campaign to secure final approval from voters.

"What owner in their right mind would go through an election after going through all the rest of this?" Storch said. "I don't know of any landowner who'd be willing to take that on."

That sentiment helps explain the stealthy moves to prepare for another Florida building boom. Even as the construction industry remains stalled by the recession, developers are lining up at unprecedented rates to secure approval for big projects that could add hundreds of thousands of new buildings to the Florida market.

Florida Hometown Democracy's Amendment 4, which will be on the ballot next November and would give voters the final say on local comprehensive plan amendments, is unintentionally helping push the planning frenzy.

An over-supply of houses would hold down the prices on existing homes, said David Denslow, an economist with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

"We do see some recovery of the housing market," he said. "But that process will be discouraged somewhat by the comp-plan amendments going on right now."

Denslow is no fan of the Hometown Democracy amendment because he doesn't believe it will foster good planning. But he also criticizes legislative action that has loosened growth management regulations in hopes of aiding the economy.

He was reminded of Florida's class-size amendment, which forced smaller teacher-student ratios on lawmakers and school officials after they failed to quell the clamor from parents and education advocates. A failure to meet voters' concerns about over-development is driving Hometown Democracy -- even as the threat of Hometown Democracy prompts developers to accelerate their plans.

"That's a great analogy," Denslow said. "It (development) got out of hand during the housing boom. We saw a period that amounted to deregulation. Hometown Democracy is a reaction that goes too far the other way."

"Everybody can anticipate the supply (of houses) is already there. The problem is if local governments lose the ability to control that supply," he said. "That's just going to feed Hometown Democracy."

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Growth Rush of 2009 - Daytona Beach News Journal - November 22, 2009

DUNEDIN - You can add real estate offices after restaurants, golf courses, condos and RV parks on the list of where you will find snowbirds, the perennial winter visitors from Michigan, Ontario and other parts north who began arriving in early November.

Despite the poor economy, and stronger efforts by Western states to recruit seasonal visitors affluent enough to afford two residences, more snowbirds are expected to gather in Florida this year than last, partly because of housing prices here.

"It appears snowbirds are arriving in greater numbers early this year," said Walter Klages, who heads Tampa-based Research Data Services Inc., which provides consulting services for visitors bureaus.

"These are not tourists," Klages said. "They are part-time residents."

In recent years, the University of Florida Bureau Of Economic and Business Research produced a handful of studies to show how to scientifically identify a state's snowbird population.

Still, locals can see the impact, from additional highway congestion caused by vehicles with out-of-state plates to the increased business, sales and property tax revenue from long-term visitors.

A 2006 Journals of Gerontology paper by UF's Stanley K. Smith and Mark House estimated there were 818,000 snowbirds in Florida at the peak of the 2005 winter season.

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Snowbirds swoop in on home deals - Tampa Bay Online - November 22, 2009

THE VILLAGES — While at their neighborhood recreation center, Village of Duval residents Paul and Dawne Lampson gazed across the street last week and expressed an amazement shared by neighbors Jerry and Sue Wilson and Jim and Gayle Opatrny.

Just a year or so ago, an expanse of undeveloped land existed across the street from the Odell Circle pool, bocce court and postal station.

Now, a neighborhood with all the trappings — wind chimes hanging from lanais, barbecue cookers on the patios and other indicators of occupancy — stands as testimony to population growth last year in The Villages.

The growth in The Villages is significant, considering that last year Florida experienced its first population decline in 60 years, recently released state demographic data showed.

“Look out there, there’s nothing but homes now,” Dawne Lampson commented. “I would say the population growth here is astronomical.”

Compared with the 2000 Census, Sumter County’s population ranked second behind Flagler County for the year ended April 1 in terms of percentage growth, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida reported in estimates recently presented to the state Legislature.

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Villages’ population growth bucks trend - The Villages Daily Sun - November 15, 2009

ORLANDO -- Florida ranks seventh on a list of states in fiscal peril.

According to the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, during a one year period, the state's population fell by more than 58,000.

Florida's population hasn't been this small since World War II.

This may not seem like a big deal for a state with 18 million residents, but it's been 63 years since the population even fell at all.

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Study: Florida In Fiscal Peril - Central Florida News 13 - November 11, 2009

After trying out Atlanta, Miami and Pasadena, Calif., Lilian Junco decided this was the place to retire. Being near her son was the first attraction, but soon she was drawn in by the same combination of features that has lured tens of thousands of others from out of state -- Gulf Coast living, plus super-low costs.

With some of the country's cheapest prices for housing, gas and food, no state income tax and one of the most resilient economies in the nation, Galveston and other parts of the Lone Star state are emerging as the new Florida.

This week, when Florida demographers announce new population figures, they are expected to reveal a decline of 57,000 over the 12 months ended in April -- the first annual drop since the 1940s. Much of the loss has come in parts of southern Florida that long attracted retirees.

Stanley Smith, the University of Florida demographer who produces official population reports for the state, says the latest recession will make Florida's cost of living more competitive. Home prices have fallen by as much as 60% in parts of the state. What's not yet clear is how Texas will fare with Baby Boomers, whose retirement path remains undefined, experts say.

The oldest of that generation is 63 this year. The recession and loss of wealth may hold back their migration, and many Boomers may look to settle in places where they can find part-time work.

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Texas, the new Florida, lures seniors with sun, low cost living - The Baltimore Sun - October 30, 2009

TALLAHASSEE - Since World War II, Florida has beckoned retirees looking to spend their golden years in the sun. The steady stream has made Florida's population the oldest in the nation.

Now, Florida is headed for an even grayer future in the Baby Boomer retirement era, state economists and demographers predict. The consequences: worker shortages and severe strains on public pensions and government services.

By 2030, more than one in four state residents will be 65 or older – or 26 percent, compared with 17 percent today, the University of Florida Bureau for Business and Economic Research says. Over the next two decades, researchers say, Florida's senior population will account for almost 60 percent of the state's population growth, and swell to more than 6 million.

In recent weeks, state economists have been warning legislators that as Baby Boomers retire and not enough working-age residents take their place, they'll have to deal with the fallout.

Many will head to Florida, as they have been doing for decades. Drawn by affordable living, air-conditioned homes and planned communities like Century Village, Florida's retiree population steadily surged over the past half-century, going from 8.6 percent of the population in 1950 to 17.6 percent in 2000.

The numbers are set to balloon even more, reports the UF study, which was commissioned by the Legislature. Florida's current retiree population — 3.3 million residents 65 or older — will jump to 4.6 million in 2020 and 6.3 million in 2030, the study projects. That far outstrips the expected growth rate among working-age residents.

"It's mostly due to the shift in the U.S. age structure, the aging of the Baby Boom generation, which was huge — much larger than those born in the previous years or the following years," said Stan Smith, who leads the UF research department.

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'Graying' population will strain Florida - Sun Sentinel - November 9, 2009

More than one in four residents of Florida in 2030 will be 65 years or older, compared to 17% today, the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research reports. The study, which was commissioned by the state legislature, says the boom in boomers in Florida will mean worker shortages and severe strains on public pensions and government services. It projects that Florida's current retiree population -- 3.3 million residents 65 or older -- will jump to 4.6 million in 2020 and 6.3 million in 2030.

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Study says 26% of Florida residents in 2030 will be 65 or older - USA Today - November 11, 2009

TALLAHASSEE – Since World War II, Florida has beckoned retirees looking to spend their golden years in the sun. The steady stream has made Florida the oldest state in the nation. Now, Florida is headed for an even grayer future in the Baby Boomer retirement era, state economists and demographers predict. The consequences: worker shortages and severe strains on public pensions and government services.

By 2030, more than one in four state residents will be 65 or older – or 26 percent, compared to 17 percent today, the University of Florida Bureau for Business and Economic Research says. Over the next two decades, researchers say, Florida's senior population will account for almost 60 percent of the state's population growth, and swell to more than 6 million.

All the projections are based on historical migration patterns, but they point to an increasingly aged population. Over the next two decades, 80 million Baby Boomers born from 1946 to 1964 are expected to retire, which will place a severe strain on Social Security and Medicare.

Many will head to Florida, as has been happening for decades. Drawn by affordable living, air-conditioned homes and planned communities like Lake County's The Villages, Florida's retiree population steadily surged over the last half-century, going from 8.6 percent of the population in 1950 to 17.6 percent in 2000.

That number is set to balloon even more, reports the UF study, which was commissioned by the Legislature. Florida's current retiree population -- 3.3 million residents 65 or older -- will jump to 4.6 million in 2020 and 6.3 million in 2030, the study projects. That far outstrips the expected growth rate among working-age residents.

"It's mostly due to the shift in the U.S. age structure, the aging of the Baby Boom generation, which was huge – much larger than those born in the previous years or the following years," said Stan Smith, who leads the UF research department.

Read story:
Aging boomers strain pension funds - Orlando Sentinel - November 10, 2009

Congratulations. The recession is over.

Uncle Sam (a.k.a. the Department of Commerce) reported Thursday that the economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the first positive upswing in 15 months.

But few are buying the argument that our economic winter has ended, particularly in Florida. Not with rising, double-digit unemployment and surging credit card defaults.

The increase in economic output was fueled by one-time government stimulus programs boosting auto and home sales. It benefited from comparisons to the third quarter of 2008 when credit markets seized up and the country's biggest financial institutions were in disarray.

Nonetheless, it was a bigger increase than expected and enough to fuel optimism, albeit tempered. "This is just the beginning," Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Thursday, adding, "The recession is still alive."

Florida's housing pipeline ramps up again

Home prices have inched up slightly in recent months, though still down more than 40 percent from the 2006 peak. It's hard for Florida's housing industry to gain traction until foreclosures abate and retirees up north can sell their homes and relocate. A recent mortgage applications survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a large decline in applications for both new mortgages and refinancing. Chris McCarty of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research said that suggests home sales and possibly prices may fall anew once the first-time homebuyers tax credit expires in December.

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Five signs that will signal Florida's recession is ending - St. Petersburg Times - October 30, 2009

What's on the minds of Florida consumers? Just now, according to a new University of Florida survey, they're feeling more optimistic about their current personal finances but not so comfortable with the U.S. economy.

And the good-news-bad-news scenario for our local merchants is that consumers plan to be shopping for the holidays — but primarily if there are plenty of yesteryear price tags out there.

Consumers remain "bullish on buying opportunities and are likely to be even more optimistic when they see the drastically lower prices in the coming months from retailers trying to boost holiday sales among the most cautious U.S. consumers since the Great Depression," Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, told the Gainesville Sun.

The UF survey found the confidence level among Floridians flattened off in October after rising a little in August and September. Concerns about the state's jobless rating, now at 11 percent, and pessimism about the lack of jobs and lower salaries fuel a reticence to spend, even among those currently employed.

Our Opinion: Recession-numb buyers make the case for change - Tallahassee Democrat - October 29, 2009