In a new report, members of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) Population Program at the University of Florida investigate the accuracy of several sets of state and county population projections published by BEBR over the last 30 years.
The key to Gainesville's fortunes will be for the population to grow faster than projected over the next 30 years, according to economist David Denslow.
The population in Lee and Collier counties is estimated to have increased since 2010, likely due to an increase in baby boomers looking for second homes, retirees moving to Florida, people taking advantage of lower housing prices and a slightly stronger job outlook.
The population is estimated to have grown 3.1 percent in Lee County and 2.6 percent in Collier County from 2010 to 2012, according to census data and preliminary population estimates from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.
Florida's population surged during the real estate boom when job-hunters and retirees moved into the state. That growth fed on itself as newcomers generated demand for construction, retail and other services.
Then the housing market collapsed. Florida's growth hit a jarring speed bump.
The Population Studies Program makes population estimates for counties and all incorporated cities in Florida and population projections by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin for the state and each county. These estimates and projections are used for a wide variety of planning, budgeting, and analytical purposes by state and local government agencies, businesses, research analysts, the media, and members of the general public. The links shown below provide descriptions of the data and techniques used to produce these estimates and projections.
In the fall of 2007, as home prices in Florida began slipping and population growth braked drastically from what had been a 1,000-person-a-day clip, Wall Street Journal reporter Conor Dougherty wrote an article headlined "Is Florida Over?"
