Population projections

Confidence Intervals for Population Forecasts: A Case Study of Time Series Models for States

A number of studies have dealt with the use of time series models to develop confidence intervals for population forecasts. Most have focused solely on national-level models and only a few have considered the accuracy of the resulting forecasts. In this study, we take this research in a new direction by constructing time series models for several states in the United States and evaluating the resulting population forecasts.

Publication Date: 
Smith, Stanley K.; Tayman, Jeff
34 pages

Assessing the Accuracy of Trend Extrapolation Methods for Population Projections: The Long View

Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Hilton Head, South Carolina This paper evaluates summary measures of population projection accuracy and bias for a large sample of counties and county equivalents in the continental United States over the period 1900–2000. The analysis has two primary purposes. The first is to investigate the relationship between accuracy and bias and the length of the projection horizon and base period.

Publication Date: 
Rayer, Stefan
42 pages

Forecast Accuracy and Bias: Does the Choice of Summary Measure of Error Matter?

Population projections are primarily judged by their accuracy. The most commonly used measure to determine projection accuracy is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Recently, the MAPE has been criticized for overstating forecast error and other error measures have been proposed. This study compares the MAPE with two alternative measures of forecast error, the Median APE and an M-estimator. In addition to accuracy, the paper also investigates forecast bias.

Publication Date: 
Rayer, Stefan
41 pages

Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process or on empirical analyses of past forecast errors. In this paper, we develop and test empirical prediction intervals for county population forecasts in the United States.

Publication Date: 
Rayer, Stefan; Smith, Stanley K.; Tayman, Jeff
31 pages

Highlands has 2nd oldest population

Highlands County's residents probably have more gray hair than any other county in the state, the Census would suggest.

Non-Hispanic whites leaving Broward, Palm Beach County in large numbers

Non-Hispanic whites are leaving Broward and Palm Beach counties in droves. Meanwhile, the dramatic growth of Hispanics and other minority groups has slowed to a trickle.

The latest U.S. census estimates, released today, show that the number of non-Hispanic whites in Broward County went down by more than 24,000 between 2006 and 2007, single-handedly accounting for the county's drop in total population. In Palm Beach County, that number dropped by more than 9,000.

New wave of Baby Boomers ready to descend on Florida

The Sunshine State is about to boom with Boomers.

Between 2010 and 2030, Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, are expected to descend on Florida in even larger numbers and will increase their standing as the state's largest age group. The reason: They are nearing retirement age, the state's housing prices have become more affordable and Florida's tropical climate remains a draw.

Report: Housing not ready for aging population

USA TODAY'S Haya El Nasser reports that The Journal of the American Planning Association is warning that the nation's housing is not equipped to handle a fast-growing population of elderly.

By 2050, it says, elderly will make up 21% of the population vs. 12% in 2000. In addition, 21% of households in 2050 will have at least one disabled resident and 7% will have at least one who cannot fully take care of himself or herself.

New standards needed for elderly, disabled to remain in homes

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — “Build it and they will stay” would be wise policy with today’s growing number of elderly and disabled people who want to remain in their own homes, a new University of Florida study finds.

By planning ahead, homes built now with features that meet the needs of people who have difficulty getting around will prevent more costly retrofitting in the future and perhaps avoid the trauma of moving to a retirement home, said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research and the study’s lead author.

Population Studies

The Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) began making population estimates for Florida and its counties in the 1950s, formally establishing the Population Program in 1972 when BEBR received the first of a continuous series of annual contracts from the State of Florida to produce the state's official city and county population estimates.

The Population Program continues to produce Florida’s official city, county, and state population estimates each year. These estimates are used for state revenue-sharing and many other planning, budgeting, and analytical purposes. The program also produces estimates of households and average household size and projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for the state and each county.

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