Congratulations. The recession is over.

Uncle Sam (a.k.a. the Department of Commerce) reported Thursday that the economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the first positive upswing in 15 months.

But few are buying the argument that our economic winter has ended, particularly in Florida. Not with rising, double-digit unemployment and surging credit card defaults.

What's on the minds of Florida consumers? Just now, according to a new University of Florida survey, they're feeling more optimistic about their current personal finances but not so comfortable with the U.S. economy.

And the good-news-bad-news scenario for our local merchants is that consumers plan to be shopping for the holidays — but primarily if there are plenty of yesteryear price tags out there.

Home prices in South Florida continued to eke out modest gains even as confidence in the economy stalled, according to two widely-watched reports released Tuesday, sending mixed messages to a jittery market during the run-up to the critical holiday-shopping season.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties climbed 1.1 percent from July to August -- its fourth consecutive gain. Nationally, the index was up 1.2 percent.

Florida consumers are still worried about the recession, though they're buoyed by huge buying opportunities this season, a new University of Florida survey finds.

"Consumers are more optimistic this month about their current personal finances and less optimistic about the U.S. economy in both the short and long term," said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Two key economic markers in Florida -- consumer confidence and a much-watched home price index -- showed a second consecutive month of improvement, offering further evidence the recession is easing, though a long recovery likely awaits.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed South Florida home prices posted their second, though modest, monthly gain of 1.3 percent in July, as strong sales and shrinking inventory helped to firm up prices. The index, however, was still down from a year ago, by 21 percent.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Belief that a national economic recovery is under way boosted Florida’s consumer confidence three points to 74 in September, according to a new University of Florida survey.

“I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over and we have avoided a complete meltdown,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Once again they have surprised us with a higher than expected index.”

Floridians are a bit more confident in the economy, with the consumer confidence level up three points to 74 in September, according to a new University of Florida survey.

The three-point increase follows a four-point revised increase in August.

However, the national consumer confidence level, which was also up in August, dipped to 53.1 from 54.5.

“I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over and we have avoided a complete meltdown,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business, in a news release.

Finally, retail sales figures are poised to turn positive.

But don't get too excited about forecasts that consumer spending, the biggest single component driving the U.S. economy, will edge back into the black for the Christmas holiday.

What's happened is retail sales — and their key role in when the recession actually ends — are about to start being compared to last fall. That's when sales dropped off a cliff and stayed there after the financial markets meltdown.

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Five U.S. states that were among the hardest hit by job losses and the construction slump also had declines in household incomes during the first year of the recession, according to a government report.

Arizona, California, Florida, Indiana and Michigan all saw median household incomes drop in 2008, the Census Bureau said yesterday in an annual report. Only one state had a decline the previous year.

If you picked up the most recent Time magazine, you probably saw a story captioned: ``A Shrinking Sunshine State.''

And, if you're like many Floridians who are sick of stewing in traffic, you got your hopes up.

The University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which tracks population trends, recently reported that the state lost 58,294 residents between April 2008 and April 2009.