Florida Specific Indicator Releases
Florida Government Employment
Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. This figure includes employment data from all federal, state, and local government agencies in the state of Florida. Seasonally adjusted and deflated by Florida’s labor force.
Florida State Revenue
This data comprises monthly collections by the State of Florida from general revenue sources; examples of these include sales tax, corporate income tax, insurance premium tax, and beverage tax and licenses. Unlike the State Department of Revenue’s release, the release from the EDR includes collections from all state agencies. Not seasonally adjusted, chained to January 2000 dollars.
NY Federal Reserve’s Recession Indicator
The monthly arithmetic mean of the daily spread between the ten year treasury note and three month treasury bill is taken, then plugged into a real linear function (that is, a function of the form y=mx+b). This function then gives a number that falls somewhere under the curve of a standard normal distribution, and the probability that an observation falls to the left of that number is the recession indicator. Current month’s indicator is supposed to give the probability of a recession one year in advance.
Federal Reserve's Leading Indicator Index
The components of this index are: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill, non-farm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP. The last four indicators are those that go into computing the state coincident indices.
Tourism spending comprises all goods and services purchased by tourist (defined as people who travel for any reason). The values reported are quarterly data. To smooth out the graph, it is converted to monthly data by simply giving each month one-third of its respective quarter's value, and then taking a 12-month moving average. It is chained to 2005 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and in Millions of US Dollars. It is graphed against Florida's taxable sales data from the tourism industry, which is chained to the 2005 CPI and made into a 12-month moving average for comparison.
Northeast Home Price Index
The Northeast Home Price Index is calculated by taking the weighted mean of the Zillow Home Price index for the states of Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. The weighting used for each state is based on migration data from the 2010 Census.
Midwest Home Price Index
The Midwest Home Price Index is calculated by taking the weighted mean of the Zillow Home Price index for the states of Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. The weighting used for each state is based on migration data from the 2010 Census.
Florida Home Sales and Median Price
Single-family existing home sales are previously owned homes in which the sale closed in that month. Single-family home price is the median price of all the homes sold in that month.
This figure takes into account all new privately owned housing units authorized by building permit in Florida. This number is not seasonally adjusted.
The spread is the difference between Moody’s seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield and the current 10 year US Treasury yield; both yields are a monthly average of each business day of the month. Moody’s seasoned Aaa bond is an investment grade bond that acts as an index for all bonds given an Aaa rating by Moody’s. The 10 year Treasury yield is the current yield on a US Treasury Note with a 10 year maturity date.
Monthly average of daily exchange rates of the USD/CAN, USD/REAL, and USD/EUR. These monthly averages are then averaged to create the index, with each currency having an equal weighting.
FL Stock Index
The Florida Stock Market Index takes the monthly average of each sector in the S&P 500, and then indexes these figures to January 2003. Each sector is then weighted by its respective percentage of Florida’s annual employment, and the sectors are then summed together. The ten sectors of the S&P 500 are Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Financials, Health Care, Industrials, Energy, Materials, Information Technology, Telecommunications, and Utilities. The employment data comes from the Current Population Survey's merged outgoing rotation groups. In order to ensure a large enough sample size, the data is made into an eight year moving average.
25% weighting of Brent Crude Oil and 75% West Texas Intermediate monthly average of the daily spot price, with each monthly reading adjusted to .6P(t)+.3P(t-1)+.1P(t-2) where P(t) is the current monthly average price; it is then deflated by the Consumer Price Index, and the final index is inverted in order to reflect a negative indication for Florida when prices rise.
Taxable Sales Index
These data come to the state on sales tax returns filed monthly by retail establishments with the Florida Department of Revenue. Taxable sales are those sales subject to Chapter 212, Florida Statutes. Generally speaking, the sales tax is levied on sales of goods, but not services, although there are some taxable services. Major categories of exempt sales are food not prepared for immediate consumption, medical and legal services, residential utilities, items purchased for resale, intangible personal property, and rentals over six months. It is estimated that taxable sales comprise 40-45% of all retail sales. The index is constructed by aggregating the categories of autos and accessories, other durables, tourism and recreation, and consumer nondurables. This grouping represents the bulk of non-investment spending and is analogous to personal consumption. The sum of these four categories is seasonally adjusted and a four month moving average is taken. It is finally adjusted by the Consumer Price Index.
A list of five questions about individuals’ financial situation and outlook on the economy, Consumer Confidence surveys about 500 Floridian each month. Each question is given equal weighting in the final index, and demographic data on those surveyed is provided as well.
Initial Unemployment Claims in Florida
Initial Unemployment Claims show the number of individuals that filed for unemployment insurance for the first time after losing a job through no fault of their own. This figure is not seasonally adjusted.