Federal Reserve's Leading Indicator Index
Definition:The components of this index are: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill, non-farm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP. The last four indicators are those that go into computing the state coincident indices.
Source:Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
The goal of the Philly Fed's leading index is to predict the six month growth rate of it's coincident index. The most recent data effects more than just the current monthly forecast, hence the leading index for previous months is constantly changing. The coincident indices are released monthly for each state and the US, with each set to a value of 100 for July 1992. Note that many of the components in Philly Fed index do overlap with other listed indicators, but for the benefit of our users we provide as much data as possible.