Florida’s economy is looking bright according to the Philadelphia Fed’s leading indicator index, which projected a 1.73% growth rate for the state over the next 6 months in November. Also, Florida’s coincident index—also from the Philly Fed—grew to 143.55 in that same month, up 0.3% from the month prior. Moreover, Florida’s coincident index outpaced the national index in November, which grew by 0.21%. The components of the coincident index that contributed to this growth were Florida’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate—which dropped to 8.1% in November—average weekly hours worked in manufacturing—which increased by 0.1 hours to 40.2—and seasonally-adjusted nonfarm payrolls—which increased by 0.33% to 7,402,200. Only one component declined—Florida’s wage and salary disbursements dropped by 1.42% in the third quarter of 2012, after being deflated by the CPI. Since these components are also a part of Florida’s leading index, they contributed to its rise as well. In addition to these components, the leading index received additional help from Florida’s initial unemployment claims—the weekly average in November was 11.6% lower than October 2012 and 0.2% lower than November 2011—and new residential units authorized by building permit—which grew by 3.23% from October and 43.05% from a year ago. However, the New York Fed’s recession indicator grew in November—indicating a 6.41% chance of a recession in November 2013—while manufacturing delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management also worsened. For further reading on many of these components, see the Florida Indicators list on BEBR’s home page.
Federal Reserve's Leading Indicator Index 2012-11-01 to 2012-11-30
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Friday, November 30, 2012