Slight dip in unemployment rate raises hope

WASHINGTON - Finally, a glimmer of good news has broken through the gloomy jobs picture.

A down-tick in the nation's unemployment rate has raised hopes that the economy is beginning to recover and will produce jobs quicker than expected.

Economists say this and other signs point to recovery, even in states such as Florida that were hit hardest by the recession. The waves of layoffs may be coming to an end.

They warn, however, that a slight shift in the unemployment rate — 9.4 percent in July, down from 9.5 percent in June, according to a Labor Department report Friday — could just reflect the thousands who have given up looking for work. Full recovery with significant job gains will not come until next year.

"It is good news," said David Denslow, an economist at the University of Florida. "Even though statistically speaking it's not really a change, it is certainly better than what might have happened. The expectation was that it would be substantially worse, and we would see an unemployment rate as high as 9.7 or 9.8 percent."

Florida and other Sunbelt states took the brunt of the recession when housing values plummeted and construction jobs melted away.

"The system is in place for recovery. Housing prices, even here in Florida, are stabilizing," said Chris McCarty, public survey director at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. "But it's going to be a long haul to re-employ the large numbers who have lost their jobs. I think unemployment will continue at a high level until about the middle of 2010."

Slight dip in unemployment rate raises hope - Sun Sentinel - August 8, 2009