Retail sales poised to turn positive, but don't get too excited
Finally, retail sales figures are poised to turn positive.
But don't get too excited about forecasts that consumer spending, the biggest single component driving the U.S. economy, will edge back into the black for the Christmas holiday.
What's happened is retail sales — and their key role in when the recession actually ends — are about to start being compared to last fall. That's when sales dropped off a cliff and stayed there after the financial markets meltdown.
"Consumers think things are getting better partly because they are spending money they actually have rather than taking on more debt," said Chris McCarty, who Tuesday will post another solid gain in the Florida Consumer Confidence Index at the University of Florida. "But I think they're starting be more confident than is warranted."