Signs point to recession's easing in Florida

Two key economic markers in Florida -- consumer confidence and a much-watched home price index -- showed a second consecutive month of improvement, offering further evidence the recession is easing, though a long recovery likely awaits.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed South Florida home prices posted their second, though modest, monthly gain of 1.3 percent in July, as strong sales and shrinking inventory helped to firm up prices. The index, however, was still down from a year ago, by 21 percent.

Nationally, consumer confidence dipped by 1.4 percent to 53.1 in September, according to The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group. That not a good sign for retailers whose hopes are pegged to robust holiday spending.

Bucking the national trend, however, new figures from the University of Florida show consumer confidence rose three points in September to 74, following a revised increase of four points in August. The two-month trend indicates more than a margin of error as previous blips in the index may have suggested.

``This is real,'' said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business. ``Consumers have been hearing the recession is over, or the worst of it, and this is a reflection of that,'' he said.

Stabilization of the stock market, falling gas prices and a bottoming-out in home values in many parts of the state have helped, McCarty said. ``A big part of the problem was the lack of knowledge of what your wealth actually was. A house is a big part of wealth and when prices are falling you just don't know what you have,'' he said.

Floridians, however, are still pessimistic about the state of their own personal finances. The UF survey showed that consumer sentiment stayed at 44 in September, the same as the previous month, which is only five points better than its lowest point ever in December.

Signs point to recession's easing in Florida - Miami Herald - September 30, 2009