DUNEDIN - You can add real estate offices after restaurants, golf courses, condos and RV parks on the list of where you will find snowbirds, the perennial winter visitors from Michigan, Ontario and other parts north who began arriving in early November.

Despite the poor economy, and stronger efforts by Western states to recruit seasonal visitors affluent enough to afford two residences, more snowbirds are expected to gather in Florida this year than last, partly because of housing prices here.

"It appears snowbirds are arriving in greater numbers early this year," said Walter Klages, who heads Tampa-based Research Data Services Inc., which provides consulting services for visitors bureaus.

"These are not tourists," Klages said. "They are part-time residents."

In recent years, the University of Florida Bureau Of Economic and Business Research produced a handful of studies to show how to scientifically identify a state's snowbird population.

Still, locals can see the impact, from additional highway congestion caused by vehicles with out-of-state plates to the increased business, sales and property tax revenue from long-term visitors.

A 2006 Journals of Gerontology paper by UF's Stanley K. Smith and Mark House estimated there were 818,000 snowbirds in Florida at the peak of the 2005 winter season.

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Snowbirds swoop in on home deals - Tampa Bay Online - November 22, 2009

After trying out Atlanta, Miami and Pasadena, Calif., Lilian Junco decided this was the place to retire. Being near her son was the first attraction, but soon she was drawn in by the same combination of features that has lured tens of thousands of others from out of state -- Gulf Coast living, plus super-low costs.

With some of the country's cheapest prices for housing, gas and food, no state income tax and one of the most resilient economies in the nation, Galveston and other parts of the Lone Star state are emerging as the new Florida.

This week, when Florida demographers announce new population figures, they are expected to reveal a decline of 57,000 over the 12 months ended in April -- the first annual drop since the 1940s. Much of the loss has come in parts of southern Florida that long attracted retirees.

Stanley Smith, the University of Florida demographer who produces official population reports for the state, says the latest recession will make Florida's cost of living more competitive. Home prices have fallen by as much as 60% in parts of the state. What's not yet clear is how Texas will fare with Baby Boomers, whose retirement path remains undefined, experts say.

The oldest of that generation is 63 this year. The recession and loss of wealth may hold back their migration, and many Boomers may look to settle in places where they can find part-time work.

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Texas, the new Florida, lures seniors with sun, low cost living - The Baltimore Sun - October 30, 2009

TALLAHASSEE – Since World War II, Florida has beckoned retirees looking to spend their golden years in the sun. The steady stream has made Florida the oldest state in the nation. Now, Florida is headed for an even grayer future in the Baby Boomer retirement era, state economists and demographers predict. The consequences: worker shortages and severe strains on public pensions and government services.

By 2030, more than one in four state residents will be 65 or older – or 26 percent, compared to 17 percent today, the University of Florida Bureau for Business and Economic Research says. Over the next two decades, researchers say, Florida's senior population will account for almost 60 percent of the state's population growth, and swell to more than 6 million.

All the projections are based on historical migration patterns, but they point to an increasingly aged population. Over the next two decades, 80 million Baby Boomers born from 1946 to 1964 are expected to retire, which will place a severe strain on Social Security and Medicare.

Many will head to Florida, as has been happening for decades. Drawn by affordable living, air-conditioned homes and planned communities like Lake County's The Villages, Florida's retiree population steadily surged over the last half-century, going from 8.6 percent of the population in 1950 to 17.6 percent in 2000.

That number is set to balloon even more, reports the UF study, which was commissioned by the Legislature. Florida's current retiree population -- 3.3 million residents 65 or older -- will jump to 4.6 million in 2020 and 6.3 million in 2030, the study projects. That far outstrips the expected growth rate among working-age residents.

"It's mostly due to the shift in the U.S. age structure, the aging of the Baby Boom generation, which was huge – much larger than those born in the previous years or the following years," said Stan Smith, who leads the UF research department.

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Aging boomers strain pension funds - Orlando Sentinel - November 10, 2009

Four out of 10 households in Marion County are occupied by someone who is 65 or older.

That is perhaps no surprise in Florida which, according to recently released census statistics, ranks first in the nation for percentage of older households.

In Marion County, the percentage has remained consistent for the past decade - more a reflection of who we are than who we're becoming. But a deeper look shows that some things are changing, and not for the better: The number of people 65 and older living alone has increased 40 percent since 2000, and the number living in poverty rose by 44 percent.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Census Bureau released results of its 2008 American Community Survey. It provides one-year estimates based on information collected for 7,000 areas with populations of 65,000 or more.

Marion County ranks ninth in Florida among those counties surveyed. Some 54,852 households, or 40.3 percent of the total, were occupied by at least one person 65 or older. That remains virtually unchanged since the 2000 Census, when it was 39.9 percent, and the mid-decade ACS, which reported 39.2 percent.

On the face of it, the majority of this substantial older demographic "tend to be healthier and wealthier than average and ... don't bring as many problems to the community" that might strain medical and other services, said Stan Smith, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.

Seniors in crisis - Ocala Star Banner - October 25, 2009

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Five U.S. states that were among the hardest hit by job losses and the construction slump also had declines in household incomes during the first year of the recession, according to a government report.

Arizona, California, Florida, Indiana and Michigan all saw median household incomes drop in 2008, the Census Bureau said yesterday in an annual report. Only one state had a decline the previous year.

The figures highlight concern that consumer spending may hamper a recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s. Falling home values and stock prices have fueled an $11.1 trillion loss in household wealth in the U.S. since the third quarter of 2007, before the recession began.

“The recession hit Florida harder than most states,” said Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Housing was a major engine of growth. The decline in the housing market is a big reason incomes have dropped so much.”

Construction jobs accounted for 29 percent of all job losses in California and Florida, the Labor Department said.

Household Incomes Fell in Five U.S. States in 2008, Census Says - Bloomberg.com - September 22, 2009

More on this topic:
We're struggling -- and fleeing Florida - Orlando Sentinel - September 22, 2009

If you picked up the most recent Time magazine, you probably saw a story captioned: ``A Shrinking Sunshine State.''

And, if you're like many Floridians who are sick of stewing in traffic, you got your hopes up.

The University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which tracks population trends, recently reported that the state lost 58,294 residents between April 2008 and April 2009.

It's the first time since 1946 that Florida's population has dipped. The reason back then was the ending of World War II, when thousands of military personnel who'd been stationed here moved out.

The reason for today's downturn is a primitive, unbalanced economy that's been hammered especially hard by the recession. Unemployment in Florida is high, the cost of living is rising, and we lead the universe in home-mortgage foreclosures.

Some families are packing up and move elsewhere in search of work and affordable housing. That's the history of migration on this continent, going back to colonial times.

Still, the media seems fascinated by the possibility that Florida, which for the last 50 years has grown faster and more recklessly than other state, is finally losing its sunny allure.

From a Sept. 4 report on National Public Radio: ``The population loss comes as a shock to a state where growth is both an industry and a foundation of the economy.''

From an Aug. 30 article in The New York Times: ``Imagine the shock . . . to discover that traffic is now headed the other way. That's right, the Sunshine State is shrinking.''

Not fast enough, it isn't.

According to the UF study, the net loss of 58,294 persons lowers Florida's current population from 18,807,219 to 18,748,925. That's a drop of only about three tenths of one percent, which doesn't even qualify as a trickle, much less an exodus.

Now, hundreds of thousands of homes and condos sit empty -- unfinished, unsold or foreclosed. Local governments that run on revenues from sales taxes and property taxes are slashing services. Many small businesses are closing, big businesses are laying off workers, and new jobs are scarce.

So some folks are hitting the road. That's what people do to survive in tough times.

Yet the suggestion that Florida is emptying out, as appealing as it might be to many who stay, is premature. According to Stan Smith at UF, about half the state's counties actually gained population last year.

He predicts that, as the national economy recovers, people will resume migrating here. If so, they won't be arriving at the crazed-lemming pace of 1,100-per-day, as in the boom years.

Yeah, we're shrinking, but not enough (Opinion) - Miami Herald - September 12, 2009

Florida’s first population contraction since World War II is now affecting how advertisers see the Tampa-St. Petersburg market for the upcoming television season.

Nielsen Media Research said four of Florida’s major television markets – Tampa, Miami, Fort Myers and Tallahassee – are down in the overall ranking of designated market areas because of declines in domestic migration.

The Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) DMA has fallen to the 14th largest DMA in the country, falling behind Seattle-Tacoma after losing 16,350 television households between the 2008-09 and the 2009-10 seasons. Seattle-Tacoma, on the other hand, gained 14,020 households during the same time span and now has 28,180 more television households than the 1.81 million stretching from Hernando to Sarasota counties.

The shrinkage was part of an overall trend that has given the United States its smallest level of household growth in a decade growing from 114.5 million to 114.9 million. Previous expansions nationally were by at least a million and sometimes as high as 3 million.

According to an Aug. 18 report from the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, the state lost 58,294 people since last year, falling to 18.75 million people.

“The population decline is really a reflection of how severe the national recession has been,” said Stan Smith, director of the UF bureau when the new population numbers were released. “Traditionally, Florida’s growth has been spurred by both a booming economy and a booming housing market, and both have seen substantial losses over the last couple of years.”

Tampa-St. Pete television market shrinks, falls behind Seattle - Tampa Business Journal - August 28, 2009

HOLLYWOOD, Fla. — The smiling couple barreling ahead on the cover of Liberty magazine in 1926 knew exactly where to go. “Florida or Bust,” said the white paint on the car doors. “Four wheels, no brakes.”

So it has been for a century, as Florida welcomed thousands of newcomers every week, year after year, becoming the nation’s fourth-most-populous state with about 16 million people in 2000.

Imagine the shock, then, to discover that traffic is now heading the other way. That’s right, the Sunshine State is shrinking.

Choked by a record level of foreclosures and unemployment, along with a helping of disillusionment, the state’s population declined by 58,000 people from April 2008 to April 2009, according to the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Except for the years around World Wars I and II, it was the state’s first population loss since at least 1900.

“It’s dramatic,” said Stanley K. Smith, an economics professor at the University of Florida who compiled the report. “You have a state that was booming and has been a leader in population growth for the last 100 years that suddenly has seen a substantial shift.”

The loss is more than a data point. Growth gave Florida its notorious flip-flop and flower-print swagger. Life could be carefree under the sun because, as a famous state tourism advertisement put it in 1986, “The rules are different here.”

After Century of Growth, Tide Turns in Florida - New York Times - August 29, 2009

When Fran and Ian Love opened the Clubhouse Bar & Grill in Vero Beach in 2005, they thought their new eatery would be a gold mine because of its prime location.

Just steps away from Dodgertown, the Loves’ restaurant thrived when the Dodgers played spring training games at Holman Stadium. But with the local economy tanking and Dodgertown now a ghost town, the couple are struggling to keep their doors open.

“We can’t afford to lose any more customers,” said Fran Love, who has shed half her staff and currently opens after 2 p.m. because of less traffic. “I am working the kitchen now, I am taking extra shifts.”

The Loves aren’t alone in their financial losses. Indian River County and the state lost a substantial boost of tax dollars brought during the height of the Dodgers spring training games in March.

A comparison of overall sales tax receipt revenues collected in Indian River County during March showed a $1.9 million decline in total sales tax collected versus March 2008. In Indian River County, residents pay a 7-cent sales tax, with 1.5-cent going toward the county’s general fund, and infrastructure projects. The remaining money is collected, disbursed and spent by the state.

Economists and tourism experts have a different opinion. They say the economic impact of spring training in communities across Florida is minimal.

“Certainly the Dodgers was a big part of the economy, but a lot of this is due to the recession,” said Stan Smith, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida, which collects statewide economic and demographic research. Bill Fruth, president of Policom Corp., an economic consulting firm based in Palm City, shared the same sentiments.

Debate over Dodgers effect on sales tax lingers - TCPalm.com - August 26, 2009

The following represent city-, county-, and regional-level news stories around the state relating to the BEBR Population Program's recent release of the April 1, 2009 preliminary population estimates.

Brevard's population dipped last year - Florida Today - August 24, 2009
UF: Polk Is Losing People - The Ledger - August 22, 2009
In a 'shocking' reversal, Central Florida is shrinking - Orlando Sentinel - August 20, 2009
Manatee bucks Fla. population decline - Bradenton Herald - August 20, 2009
Bureau estimate shows Collier population increased, while many left Naples - naplesnews.com - August 19, 2009
South Florida plays part in first statewide population drop since WWII - South Florida Sun Sentinel - August 19, 2009
Port St. Lucie, St. Lucie County are biggest population losers on Treasure Coast - TCPalm.com - August 19, 2009
Martin County declines by 12 people - TCPalm.com - August 19, 2009
Sarasota County lost more than 1% of residents in last year - Herald Tribune - August 19, 2009
Manatee population grows, but Sarasota’s drops - Bradenton Herald - August 19, 2009
Population drops on Treasure Coast, according to report - TCPalm.com - August 19, 2009
Duval County’s population declines - Jacksonville Business Journal - August 19, 2009
County bucks state population trend - Gainesville Sun - August 19, 2009
Marion County gains population, defying statewide loss - Ocala Star Banner - August 19, 2009
Hillsborough population falls for first time in decades, UF says - Tampa Tribune - August 18, 2009
Lee County population drops from 2008 - naplesnews.com- August 14, 2009
Cape Coral population down nearly 2 percent - Ft. Myers News-Press - August 14, 2009
Lee County's population drops by 8,601 residents - Ft. Myers News-Press - August 14, 2009

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Florida's population has declined for the first time in 63 years and economists blame the recession for empty classrooms, plunging tax revenues and a severe slowing of people moving to the Sunshine State.

The director of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research Stan Smith the population dropped by 58,000 people between 2008 and 2009. This is the first decline since large numbers of military personnel left the state in 1946 after World War II.

Fla. reports first population decline since 1946 - Associated Press - August 17, 2009

More on this topic:

BEST PRACTICES: Florida population declines for first time since 1946 - TCPalm.com Business Journal - August 23, 2009
It'll take a lot of digging to get out of this hole (Commentary) - Orlando Sentinel - August 20, 2009
Our Opinion: Shrink rap; Losing population, Florida must regroup - Tallahassee Democrat - August 20, 2009
Population Decrease - WRUF AM850 - August 19, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since ’46 - Bradenton Herald - August 18, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since 1946 - The Jacksonville Observer - August 18, 2009
Florida's population drops for the first time since 1946 - Miami Herald - August 18, 2009
Florida population sinks after six-decade run - The Florida Times Union - August 18, 2009
Florida’s population drops - South Florida Business Journal - August 18, 2009
Florida’s First Population Decline Since 1946 Squeezes Budget - Bloomberg.com - August 18, 2009
Florida's population drops for the first time in more than 60 years - Orlando Sentinel - August 17, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since ’46 - KRDO News Channel 13, Colorado Springs, CO- August 17, 2009
No Sunshine in Florida - The Atlantic - August 17, 2009
On the Mat, Florida Wonders Which Way Is Up - New York Times - August 17, 2009
Florida's Population Is Shrinking - Miami New Times - August 17, 2009
Recession-battered Florida may have lost population - Orlando Sentinel - August 17, 2009
Florida's population boom fades; state will mark first decline in residents in more than 60 years - Tallahassee Democrat - August 13, 2009
Florida's population boom fades - Ft. Myers News Press - August 13, 2009
Florida's Population Shed About 50,000 Residents - St. Petersburg Times - August 12, 2009

The U.S. Census 2010 will bring up to 3,100 part-time jobs to Jacksonville this fall.

Each of the two Jacksonville offices will have about six managers whose salaries will range from $24 per hour to $28 per hour, said Stacy Gimbel, U.S. Census Bureau spokeswoman. The other estimated 39 non-supervisory workers’ salaries will range from $12 per hour to $16 per hour.

Although the manager positions are expected to last about a year, the majority of employees will only work a few months. Each office will hire up to 1,500 workers to follow-up with households that do not mail back their census questionnaires.

The information collected by Census workers will help businesses better understand their customers, said Stan Smith, University of Florida professor of economics and the director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The census will give businesses a better understanding of how their markets breakdown by age, wealth, ethnic groups and race.

“Given the changes that happen over a decade, business will have an update and be better able to decide where they need to expand,” said Smith.

Census to bring jobs to Jacksonville - Jacksonville Business Journal - July 16, 2009

Nine of Brevard County's 16 municipalities lost population from 2007 to 2008, according to newly released Census data. Of the nine, five were beachside communities.

Population experts say the leveling off or decline in population is the result of economic factors, not just within Brevard County, but in Florida overall.

Statewide, the population grew by 0.7 percent from 2007 to 2008, reaching 18.33 million. Since 2000, Florida's population rose 14.2 percent.

Stan Smith, the director of the Bureau of Economics and Business Research at the University of Florida, said the weak economy, combined with the housing bust, are impacting population statistics, just as those factors have done in other tough economic times.

"There aren't as many new jobs available. In fact, Florida has lost a substantial amount of jobs," Smith said. "The recession, combined with the housing meltdown, has made it difficult for people to sell their homes in the states they're migrating from and get a loan in the state they're moving to."

Census: Brevard cities losing population - Florida Today - July 5, 2009

Public school enrollment numbers will continue to dip statewide and in Alachua County during the 2009-10 school year, according to the latest state numbers.

Projections released earlier in June showed Alachua County's enrollment - including charter schools - dropping for the third straight school year.The projected enrollment is 26,900 students - down about 1.5 percent from 27,293 students during the 2008-09 school year. Since the 2006-07 school year, Alachua County's enrollment is down 1,344 students, or almost 5 percent.

Statewide, enrollment numbers have dropped by more than 33,000 from 2005-06 to a projected 2,608,007 students in 2009-10. Where have the students gone? Opinions on that vary.

Stanley K. Smith, program director for population studies at the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said that while 2009 population updates are ongoing it's already obvious that "population growth has certainly slowed a great deal" in Florida during recent years.

Story Title - Gainesville Sun - June 23, 2009

There are undeniable links — coastal, climate, political, economic, cultural and, of course, sun worshipping — between the palm tree-filled states of Florida and California. Some state watchers go so far to say that what happens in California is often Florida's destiny a few decades later.

Better be careful what we wish for.

"Our wallet is empty. Our bank is closed. Our credit is dried up," declared California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to lawmakers earlier this month. "California's day of reckoning is here" — an ominous quote from the "governator" that sounds like a line right out of Arnold's 1999 apocalyptic movie, End of Days.

That's cold comfort to Florida, whose long-term strategy looks a lot like the Golden State's.

Parallels between Florida and California can seem uncanny. Both are big sunshine states with big coastlines. We suffer hurricanes and California endures earthquakes. California is in the midst of a fiscal disaster while Florida narrowly escaped one, this time. California fights increasing threats of coastal oil and gas drilling. So does Florida.

"The premise that there have been a number of similarities between the two states, and that things have happened in California before they have occurred in Florida. … That would be valid," says Stan Smith, professor of economics and the director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.

But calling California a "role model" whose footsteps Florida dutifully follows may be a stretch, he adds. In this recession, many of California's budget woes also can be found in states other than Florida.

And it's the dawn of a day of reckoning - St. Petersburg Times - June 14, 2009

We first heard the term decades ago: The "Sun Belt" was just starting a run of phenomenal growth - and no wonder. It conjured a sunny state of mind as well as a balmy place on the map.

Everybody, it seemed, wanted a spot in the sun.

For a generation or more, the Sun Belt thrived like no other region in America - a growth so steady it felt as though the boom would never end. But now it has, replaced by a bust that has left some swaths of the region suffering as severely as anywhere in the current recession.

What brought the dark clouds to the Sun Belt, and are they here to stay?

Interviews with economists and demographers across the region, and data from The Associated Press Economic Stress Index, a month-by-month analysis of foreclosure, bankruptcy and unemployment rates in more than 3,000 U.S. counties, suggest that the answers are not all encouraging.

Stan Smith, a professor of economics and director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida, says tourism, the "momentum" of decades of population growth, and already extensive networks of personal connections will again draw more migrants to Florida.

Frozen credit won't last, he says. Real estate price declines - as much as 70 percent in some Sun Belt counties - will entice buyers. And with home heating costs in the "Frost Belt" only expected to rise, Smith says, the attraction of warm weather to retiring Baby Boomers can't be overestimated.

Has twilight come to the Sun Belt? - Hattisburg American - May 30, 2009

More on this topic:
Foreclosures take luster off Sun Belt - Ft. Wayne Journal Gazette - May 31, 2009

Brevard County keeps growing, graying and diversifying.

More than one in every five Brevardian is 65 or older, and about one in every 14 is Hispanic, according to figures released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Civic leaders worry that the county's aging diverse population could stress social safety nets.

Brevard is "a little bit older than the state as a whole," said Stanley Smith, program director for the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida in Gainesville. "But its growth rate is very similar to the state average."

Brevard's 65-and-older population last year reached 20.5 percent of all county residents, compared with about 17 percent statewide.

Higher birth rates and a construction boom helped drive Brevard's 76 percent increase in Hispanics since 2000, Smith said, a trend tempered by the recent economic downturn.

"The growth in the Hispanic population may have slowed somewhat in the last year or two because of less migration into the state," Smith said. "Certainly, the number of people moving out of the state has increased."

"We expect the population to age substantially. That's pretty much inevitable," Smith said. "The baby boomers will start hitting that retirement age very shortly. We may see increases in the proportion of older people in the labor force."

And that will have implications for Social Security, he said.

"You would have relatively more people contributing to the pie and fewer drawing from it," he said.

Brevard is growing a little older - Florida Today - May 14, 2009

EDGEWATER - Kirk Ferguson has been trying to sell his three-bedroom home for two years.

The former electrician has been looking for a larger home to accommodate his larger family, but can't buy anything until he can sell his current home, located within walking distance of the Intracoastal Waterway.

Even after Mr. Ferguson lowered the price of his home to below what the Volusia County Property Appraiser said it is worth, there haven't been any takers.

And it's no surprise.

From $4-million riverside mansions to one-bedroom concrete block homes, there are more than 500 homes listed for sale in the Edgewater area, according to the National Association of Realtors Web site.

Mr. Ferguson said he is a little confused as to why a developer would want to build an additional 8,500 more homes in the city over the next two decades.

"It seems kind of funny to me that people would build houses right now when these won't even sell," he said.

He's not alone.

A recent study by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research said a smaller number of people will be moving to the state in the next few years, with 14 counties, including Volusia, expected to lose residents.

Florida is expected to only gain an average of 37,000 residents a year until 2010.

Stan Smith, director of the bureau, said a combination of the housing market collapse and a loss of jobs, especially in construction, has hurt Florida.

But, the population loss won't last forever.

"As the national economy recovers and as the excess supply of housing in Florida is absorbed, we're expecting growth to pick up again, probably within in the next year or so, and then to increase to more normal levels during the next decade," he said.

But, Mr. Smith said, it is hard to judge what factors will either bring people to the state or keep them away. A longer economic crisis, a lack of jobs and a high number of hurricanes are all factors that could drive people away from Florida.

Does Edgewater really need more homes? - Hometown News (Volusia County) - May 8, 2009

Think of it as the economic stimulus package that comes along every 10 years.

Roughly 2,000 residents of Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast are already tromping through neighborhoods, cashing in on the program more commonly known as the U.S. Census. Before they and thousands more nationwide have completed their work late next year, up to $15 billion will have been spent trying to make sure every man, woman and child is counted.

Unlike in previous census drives, everyone will get the same form, asking for the name, age, race and ethnicity of everyone in the household. Long forms distributed previously are now part of the American Community Survey, which is updated on an ongoing basis.

Stan Smith, director of the department of economic and business research at the University of Florida, said there are plenty of records that could be linked and analyzed to arrive at population figures. With this census expected to cost more than twice the $6 billion it cost in 2000, an administrative census would be far cheaper.

"But there's lots of concerns about privacy and confidentiality," Smith said.

2,000 volunteers tromp through Palm Beach County, Treasure Coast neighborhoods as census season begins - Palm Beach Post - May 03, 2009

ORLANDO, Fla. -- For the first time since the 1940s, more people moved out of Florida last year than new residents moved in from other states as the economic slump has halted years of explosive population growth in the Sunshine State.

Florida reported a net loss of 9,286 domestic residents between July 2007 and July 2008, according to U.S. Census data released this month. But that loss was offset by a net gain of 77,427 new international residents, mainly as immigrants arrived from Latin America and other points abroad.

The loss of domestic residents who once flocked to the Sunshine State's beachside condo towers and palm-tree lined neighborhoods also was offset by more births than deaths during the year, according to the Census data.

The Census data looked at population changes from July 2007 to July 2008 in Florida, which currently has 18.3 million residents and is the nation's fourth most populous state.

It was the first time Florida has experienced a year-to-year loss in domestic migration since the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic Research began keeping records in 1972. It also was probably the first dip since shortly after World War II, when soldiers who had come to Florida for training returned home after the war, said Stanley Smith, the bureau's director.

"This, I think, is much more fundamental and related to the national economic situation and the recession," Smith said.

The state's 9.5 percent unemployment rate is the highest since 1975, which translates into fewer jobs to attract new workers. A nationwide housing slump also has cast trouble for out-of-state residents seeking to sell their homes to move to Florida.

Growth has been the economic engine of Florida for decades. But Smith said he doesn't expect any significant population growth in the state until the national economy rebounds in a year or two.

And when a recovery does occur, Florida's growth isn't likely to reach the heights it did annually this decade, he added.

"Those were abnormally high," Smith said. "The economy was booming. Florida was adding a lot of jobs, it was easy to get loans for mortgages, and Florida's construction industry was booming."

Census shows a drop in new Florida residents - Florida AP - April 22, 2009

More on this topic:
COLUMN: The population battle - Palm Beach Post - April 22, 2009
More Leave Than Come From Other States - The Ledger - April 22, 2009
We're staying put: Moves hit lowest level since '62 - Orlando Sentinel - April 28, 2009

Florida's most self-destructive annual sport - shooting at the snowbirds - opened last week. Did you bag your limit?

Once Easter passes, Florida's seasonal residents start flying north and northwest. They'll start coming back from October through Thanksgiving. Coincidentally, their migratory pattern tracks that of turkey vultures, for which year-rounders must mistake snowbirds, given their comments.

As in, The snowbirds come each year and clog the roads and the restaurants. As in, I can't wait for the snowbirds to go home. As in, Let's stick it to the snowbirds again on taxes. They're rich, or they wouldn't have two homes. If the snowbirds don't like it, they can fly somewhere else. Who needs them?

We do.

Don't kill the snowbirds - Palm Beach Post - April 19, 2009

Several questions loom large among many raised by Miami Corp.'s 50-year plan for its 59,000 acres in Volusia and Brevard counties.

If Miami Corp. builds it, will homebuyers, manufacturers and businesses appear? If they do, can the area afford them?

Another question promises to pit cities and counties against each other: Who decides where and when growth should occur? Such decisions play a huge role in future decisions about water supply, transportation, schools and even migration away from rising seas.

Given the current economic climate, no one seems sure of the answers to these questions. It's especially hard 50 years out.

In new projections issued this week, the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research concluded that in coming years many areas of the state will see their lowest population increases since the 1930s. Volusia County is one of 14 expected to shrink in population during the next two years.

Volusia is one of many hit hard by the economic slowdown and sluggish real estate market, said Stan Smith, bureau director. However, Smith said he thinks the current slowdown is "more a short-term phenomenon than an indication of a major slowdown in long-term trends.

"We still expect growth to pick up again as we get out into the next decade but our projections for a number of years have shown gradually smaller increases in the coming decades," he said.

Long-term plans for private parcel perplex some county groups - News-Journal - March 29, 2009

MIAMI (AP) -- Sales of existing homes fell 16 percent in the South in February, as potential buyers remained cautious amid difficult economic conditions and waited for the stimulus package to take effect, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

The median sales price of existing homes in the South slid 10 percent from last year to $146,700 as distressed property sales dominated, while most markets wrestled with high inventory and low-ball offers.

On a national, non-seasonally adjusted basis, existing home sales dropped 10 percent from February last year, while the median sales price declined almost 16 percent to $165,400, the Realtors reported.

Florida has long relied on migration to fuel its housing market, but that trend may be losing steam. The state is expected to add an average of just 37,000 residents this year and next, down more than 90 percent from the annual average increase during the housing boom years of 2002 to 2006, said Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The study, released Monday, said the housing bust and withering savings and retirement accounts have made it harder for people to sell their homes and move to Florida.

South again sees drops in home sales, prices - The Associated Press - March 23, 2009

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The economic recession has cast a shadow over growth in the Sunshine State, according to the latest population projections from the University of Florida, which see Florida’s population increases plunging to their lowest level in 60 years and some counties actually shrinking.

With South Florida counties particularly hard hit, the state is expected to add an average of only 37,000 residents each year between 2008 and 2010, a drop of more than 90 percent from the annual average increase during the housing boom years of 2002 to 2006, said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research who led the research. The new report shows county population projections from 2008 to 2035.

“The collapse of the housing market and the lingering effects of what has been the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression have put a real crimp on migration and are likely to keep Florida’s population growth at very low levels for the next few years,” Smith said.

Not since the mid-1940s, when large numbers of military personnel who temporarily moved to Florida during World War II returned to their home states, has the state experienced such small population increases, Smith said. After growing by 60,000 to 80,000 per year in the late 1930s, Florida’s population swelled by 100,000 to 300,000 per year in the early 1940s, declined for two years immediately following the war and then entered a prolonged period of steady growth, he said.

Florida population growth - University of Florida News - March 23, 2009

More on this topic:
Florida growth slows - Tampa Bay Business Journal - March 23, 2009
Broward leads state in population loss, study finds - The Miami Herald - March 23, 2009
UF experts: Recession will slow state's growth - The Gainesville Sun - March 23, 2009
Marion, Alachua populations to grow despite slowdown - The Ocala Star Banner - March 23, 2009
Population decline seen for Broward, Monroe counties - The Miami Herald - March 24, 2009

Enrollment in public schools is on the decline statewide, and the trend is even more pronounced in Alachua County.

From 2007-08 to this school year, statewide student enrollment numbers dropped by nearly 25,000 to 2,620,801, Florida Department of Education numbers show.

That's the lowest number since 2004.

Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said factors in the statewide enrollment reduction include a decline in the state's birthrate throughout the first half of the 1990s.

He said the birthrate picked up again in the first half of this decade, but there will still be a gap before that leads to a significant spike in the number of school-aged children.

Smith said research has also shown a tell-tale sign of population decline, which in turn affected school enrollment: a drop in the number of residential electric accounts across the state.

He said the Bureau of Economic and Business Research has monitored those numbers since the early 1970s and they have never declined until the past six months. During that span, the number of accounts have been on a consistent decline, Smith said.

David Denslow, a UF professor and research economist with the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, agreed.

"It's clear our population growth has hit the bricks," Denslow said. "The same thing is not happening in other Southern states."

Denslow said the drop in public school enrollment is not due to student movement to private schools or home schooling. That migration would not be enough to make a substantial dent in public school enrollment statewide or in Alachua County, he said.

"It is a genuine decline in the school-age population associated with the collapse of the housing sector," Denslow said.

Paucity of pupils - Gainesville Sun - March 11, 2009