To develop his clients' vast land holdings, attorney Glenn Storch met with Volusia and Brevard county officials, bordering property owners and conservation groups.

They talked about roads. They talked about water. They discussed residential densities and jobs creation, debated how much land should be preserved, explored the impact on school construction planning. The company pulled together a panel discussion of national experts to critique their plans in public.

"We have spent four years thinking about how to do the right thing, and we're only halfway there," Storch said recently.

Having convinced elected officials in both counties to propose changes to their long-range growth plans to accommodate the Farmton project, the last thing Storch would want to do is mount an election campaign to secure final approval from voters.

"What owner in their right mind would go through an election after going through all the rest of this?" Storch said. "I don't know of any landowner who'd be willing to take that on."

That sentiment helps explain the stealthy moves to prepare for another Florida building boom. Even as the construction industry remains stalled by the recession, developers are lining up at unprecedented rates to secure approval for big projects that could add hundreds of thousands of new buildings to the Florida market.

Florida Hometown Democracy's Amendment 4, which will be on the ballot next November and would give voters the final say on local comprehensive plan amendments, is unintentionally helping push the planning frenzy.

An over-supply of houses would hold down the prices on existing homes, said David Denslow, an economist with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

"We do see some recovery of the housing market," he said. "But that process will be discouraged somewhat by the comp-plan amendments going on right now."

Denslow is no fan of the Hometown Democracy amendment because he doesn't believe it will foster good planning. But he also criticizes legislative action that has loosened growth management regulations in hopes of aiding the economy.

He was reminded of Florida's class-size amendment, which forced smaller teacher-student ratios on lawmakers and school officials after they failed to quell the clamor from parents and education advocates. A failure to meet voters' concerns about over-development is driving Hometown Democracy -- even as the threat of Hometown Democracy prompts developers to accelerate their plans.

"That's a great analogy," Denslow said. "It (development) got out of hand during the housing boom. We saw a period that amounted to deregulation. Hometown Democracy is a reaction that goes too far the other way."

"Everybody can anticipate the supply (of houses) is already there. The problem is if local governments lose the ability to control that supply," he said. "That's just going to feed Hometown Democracy."

Read story:
Growth Rush of 2009 - Daytona Beach News Journal - November 22, 2009

For the first time in over a year, the Dow Jones Industrial Index briefly hit 10,000. While much of the economy is still languishing -- for one, unemployment hit 9.8 percent earlier this month -- the Dow has risen roughly 50 percent since March.

Whether the Dow breaking the 10,000 barrier is a good indicator of the larger economy -- or just Wall Street's recent turnaround -- is a matter for debate. Judging by the stock market alone, the economy seems to be inching its way toward a recovery.

The Huffington Post spoke to David Denslow Jr., Research Economist for the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, about the Dow's recent resurgence and its relation to employment levels. Denslow pointed out that the stock market is typically a leading indicator of the larger economy. In this case, Denslow said, the disparity between unemployment and the stock market's performance seems to be more pronounced.

"It takes quite a while," Denslow said, "before employers start hiring again because they're sufficiently convinced that times are going to get good. In this case in particular, according to the conventional wisdom at least, most forecasts expect quite a lag before the unemployment rate comes down, with the consensus forecast being that it's going to peak sometime in early 2010."

Denslow, for his part, said he was optimistic that the Dow would continue to rise modestly, but cautioned against any Dow 10k fervor for average investors: "GDP probably has turned around, the stock market has come back. Those are good signs, but they're not all that pleasing when you don't have a job. My hypothesis is that we can't really tell which way [the market] is going to go."

Dow hits 10,000, unemployment nears 10 percent - Huffington Post - October 14, 2009

Florida’s population, which has been rising year after year since the end of World War II, fell for the first time this year, according to the demographers at the University of Florida.

The population dropped by 58,294 from April 1, 2008 to April 1, 2009, according to UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which measures population using household electricity connections and disconnections and housing permit data. That might not seem like much for a state with a population of about 18 million. But it’s the first drop since 1946 and it follows a population boom. By comparison, the state’s population increased by 430,905 from 2005 to 2006 (By 2007-2008, the population rose by just 126,852).

Florida’s speculative building boom was driven by the idea the retiring baby boomers and new immigrants would create steady demand for the condos towers rising from Miami to Jacksonville. But many of the immigrants who helped build homes during the boom have likely left as the state’s economic promise diminished, said David Denslow Jr., a professor and Research Economist for the Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Florida's Population Dropping with its Home Prices - Business Week - August 25, 2009

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Florida's population has declined for the first time in 63 years and economists blame the recession for empty classrooms, plunging tax revenues and a severe slowing of people moving to the Sunshine State.

The director of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research Stan Smith the population dropped by 58,000 people between 2008 and 2009. This is the first decline since large numbers of military personnel left the state in 1946 after World War II.

Fla. reports first population decline since 1946 - Associated Press - August 17, 2009

More on this topic:

BEST PRACTICES: Florida population declines for first time since 1946 - TCPalm.com Business Journal - August 23, 2009
It'll take a lot of digging to get out of this hole (Commentary) - Orlando Sentinel - August 20, 2009
Our Opinion: Shrink rap; Losing population, Florida must regroup - Tallahassee Democrat - August 20, 2009
Population Decrease - WRUF AM850 - August 19, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since ’46 - Bradenton Herald - August 18, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since 1946 - The Jacksonville Observer - August 18, 2009
Florida's population drops for the first time since 1946 - Miami Herald - August 18, 2009
Florida population sinks after six-decade run - The Florida Times Union - August 18, 2009
Florida’s population drops - South Florida Business Journal - August 18, 2009
Florida’s First Population Decline Since 1946 Squeezes Budget - Bloomberg.com - August 18, 2009
Florida's population drops for the first time in more than 60 years - Orlando Sentinel - August 17, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since ’46 - KRDO News Channel 13, Colorado Springs, CO- August 17, 2009
No Sunshine in Florida - The Atlantic - August 17, 2009
On the Mat, Florida Wonders Which Way Is Up - New York Times - August 17, 2009
Florida's Population Is Shrinking - Miami New Times - August 17, 2009
Recession-battered Florida may have lost population - Orlando Sentinel - August 17, 2009
Florida's population boom fades; state will mark first decline in residents in more than 60 years - Tallahassee Democrat - August 13, 2009
Florida's population boom fades - Ft. Myers News Press - August 13, 2009
Florida's Population Shed About 50,000 Residents - St. Petersburg Times - August 12, 2009

WASHINGTON - Finally, a glimmer of good news has broken through the gloomy jobs picture.

A down-tick in the nation's unemployment rate has raised hopes that the economy is beginning to recover and will produce jobs quicker than expected.

Economists say this and other signs point to recovery, even in states such as Florida that were hit hardest by the recession. The waves of layoffs may be coming to an end.

They warn, however, that a slight shift in the unemployment rate — 9.4 percent in July, down from 9.5 percent in June, according to a Labor Department report Friday — could just reflect the thousands who have given up looking for work. Full recovery with significant job gains will not come until next year.

"It is good news," said David Denslow, an economist at the University of Florida. "Even though statistically speaking it's not really a change, it is certainly better than what might have happened. The expectation was that it would be substantially worse, and we would see an unemployment rate as high as 9.7 or 9.8 percent."

Florida and other Sunbelt states took the brunt of the recession when housing values plummeted and construction jobs melted away.

"The system is in place for recovery. Housing prices, even here in Florida, are stabilizing," said Chris McCarty, public survey director at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. "But it's going to be a long haul to re-employ the large numbers who have lost their jobs. I think unemployment will continue at a high level until about the middle of 2010."

Slight dip in unemployment rate raises hope - Sun Sentinel - August 8, 2009

Amid the bad earnings, bankruptcies and other bleak financial news from Carolinas companies, executives are increasingly blaming some of the gloom on the Sunshine State.

From Fortune 500 corporations to family-owned businesses, many area companies invested in Florida in recent years to capture a piece of the state's population boom. Now that the housing market has collapsed, growth has stalled, tourism has ebbed and consumer spending is down, a chill has fallen on the state's once-sizzling economy.

Between commercial jet travel and air conditioning, Florida became more accessible and attractive for travelers and homeowners in the 1950s and '60s, said David Denslow, research economist at the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research in Gainesville. The expansion of interstate highways in the 1970s and '80s improved access to Florida even more, he said.

By the 21st century, Denslow said, a big chunk of the Florida labor force was in housing construction. From 2000 to 2006, he said, average home prices doubled.

“It just booms then,” he said, “and everybody is making a ton of money.”

Where homes go, retail follows. Lowe's, which opened its first Florida stores in 1993, had 37 stores in 2000. That number doubled by 2005 and tripled by the end of last year, surpassing North Carolina for the No. 2 spot among states, behind only Texas.

By 2008, however, Florida was in a free fall. High prices and a host of new developments led to a housing glut, and the growing number of “halfbacks” – people who moved from the Northeast of Midwest to Florida, then moved halfway back to states such as North Carolina or Tennessee – didn't help. So much of the economy was tied to housing, Denslow said, and “when all that unwinds, then we fall pretty hard.”

Instead of nearly 20,000 housing starts a month at the peak of the boom, Florida had about 2,000 a month earlier this year, Denslow said.

Financial chill in Carolinas? Try blaming Florida - The Charlotte Observer - July 13, 2009

As University of Florida professors prepare to grade their students, they're giving generally high marks to President Barack Obama for his first 100 days in office.

On the downside, several of Obama's appointees have faced tax problems and other issues. Large bonuses granted to executives at the American Insurance Group, which received federal bailout money, also proved to be an embarrassment for the administration.

The president has "run into some problems that are caused by the difficulty of the situation and the fact that he's had to do a lot of learning on the job," said David Denslow, a research economist for UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Denslow said the stimulus package might have been structured differently, including more spending than tax cuts, but represented the political reality of what could be passed. He initially thought there was an outside chance that unemployment could reach as high 15 percent, but now thinks the possibility is less likely.

"We've stopped plunging," he said. "We've stopped falling off the cliff.

A passing grade: UF experts see plenty of good in Obama's first 100 days - Gainesville Sun - April 29, 2009

TALLAHASSEE — A development boom is brewing under the radar of Floridians distracted by deteriorating real estate values and record foreclosures. The state is processing an unprecedented number of proposals for new homes and commercial development. If approved, these projects could pump more than 600,000 rooftops onto a market suffering from a surplus of product and slowdown in population growth.

Also on developers' wish lists: the right to build a half-billion square feet of nonresidential space. Such pipe dreams might seem laughable in today's depressed economy and moribund housing market. But property owners with an eye on the future are spinning plans that have the potential to unlock hundreds of thousands of agricultural and environmentally sensitive acres to residential and retail development over the coming decades.

In Gainesville, veteran economist David Denslow analyzes what has happened to Florida's real estate market in the past and tries to predict what's coming in the future. Figuring into his projections are the impacts of everything from rising property taxes to falling timber prices.

Denslow said he never considered the possibility that, in light of the current downturn, a glut of new projects would be under review at the DCA. When the department recently pulled together data on all major developments pending and approved since 2007, the totals were staggering: projects covering 410,126 acres, with a potential for 630,965 new homes and 479.5 million square feet of nonresidential space.

"This really catches me by surprise," said Denslow, who is with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. "I'll have to revise my thinking." He understands developers reacting to a perceived threat like Hometown Democracy. "We saw a little bit of the same phenomenon before the growth management laws first went into effect in 1985, when there was a huge surge in permits," he said.

Also, what local public official would reject a developer who dangles promises of new tax revenues? "It's hard to find a city or county that's antigrowth these days," he said. Denslow fears that the behind-the-scenes gold rush will doom Florida to relive its past. His assessment: When migration to Florida picks up again, newcomers will find affordable housing aplenty. Existing Florida homeowners, on the other hand, can kiss goodbye any dreams of cashing out big on their homes.

"In the 1980s, Florida had a huge increase in population but house prices, adjusted for inflation, didn't rise at all because the state and counties had been very friendly to development," Denslow said. "Now nobody in their right mind, even an amateur flipper, could look and say that (housing) prices are going to double in the next 10 years. Prices just won't go up all that much when you've got that number of projects in the pipeline."

Despite economy, developers want to build on Florida land - St. Petersburg Times - April 19, 2009

Despite a rapidly deteriorating housing market and plunging real estate values, Florida is experiencing an unprecedented number of requests to build new homes and develop commercial property.

The requests are coming from developers with an eye on a future real estate bubble, and those who don’t want to be hamstrung by the Hometown Democracy Amendment supporters are trying to put on the 2010 ballot that would give local residents the right to decide how land is used.

“Instinctively, most people would think there would be a slowdown,” said Mike McDaniel, a planner at the state’s Department of Community Affairs. “And it may be true at the other end, where the developers apply for the (building) permit. But there’s been no letup here. It’s a gold rush.”

Developers still salivating over Florida land - The St. Augustine Record - April 20, 2009

WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama's strategy for reviving the economy now turns largely on restoring public confidence, a psychological lift that would prompt consumers to shop, bankers to lend and investors to buy.

The president is racing from coast to coast to try to buck up consumers while the government pumps money into the economy, a theme sure to emerge at his nationally televised news conference set for 8 p.m. on Tuesday.

The message appears to be getting through to Floridians.

Surveys indicate that Florida consumers remain pessimistic. But a burst of federal aid, an uptick in stock markets, low interest rates and bargain prices have produced early signs of a changing mood that could set the stage for an economic turnaround.

Consumer surveys by the University of Florida point to a rising willingness to buy big-ticket items, such as cars and houses, despite fears that the recession will linger for many months.

"Clearly, what the administration is trying to do is pump money into the economy and get people to move it around," said Chris McCarty, who directs consumer confidence surveys at the University of Florida. "There are signs of a foundation for recovery, but it's probably far off. There's still a lot of pain caused by companies shedding jobs as they restructure."

McCarty's confidence index, based on the survey, drooped to a record low of 59 in June, when Floridians were beset by high fuel prices, plunging property values, high taxes and staggering insurance premiums.

The confidence index rose to 66 in January before slipping to 63 in February.

The index uses a baseline of 100, set by results of the first survey in 1966. The record high was 111 in August 2000. Ratings in the 70s are considered low, so last month's 63 reveals a prevailing pessimism.

Some encouraging signs are emerging.

Monthly surveys since summer indicate that Floridians are gradually more likely to say that "this is a good time to buy a major household item." Ratings on that question rose from 50 in June to 73 last month.

"Prices are falling enough that many people, despite the dismal economy, may be thinking it's an OK time to start buying," said David Denslow, an economist at the University of Florida. "This is a good sign. But it doesn't mean the economy is going to come roaring back."

Floridians want to shop again — but maybe not just yet, survey finds - Sun-Sentinel - March 21, 2009

Enrollment in public schools is on the decline statewide, and the trend is even more pronounced in Alachua County.

From 2007-08 to this school year, statewide student enrollment numbers dropped by nearly 25,000 to 2,620,801, Florida Department of Education numbers show.

That's the lowest number since 2004.

Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said factors in the statewide enrollment reduction include a decline in the state's birthrate throughout the first half of the 1990s.

He said the birthrate picked up again in the first half of this decade, but there will still be a gap before that leads to a significant spike in the number of school-aged children.

Smith said research has also shown a tell-tale sign of population decline, which in turn affected school enrollment: a drop in the number of residential electric accounts across the state.

He said the Bureau of Economic and Business Research has monitored those numbers since the early 1970s and they have never declined until the past six months. During that span, the number of accounts have been on a consistent decline, Smith said.

David Denslow, a UF professor and research economist with the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, agreed.

"It's clear our population growth has hit the bricks," Denslow said. "The same thing is not happening in other Southern states."

Denslow said the drop in public school enrollment is not due to student movement to private schools or home schooling. That migration would not be enough to make a substantial dent in public school enrollment statewide or in Alachua County, he said.

"It is a genuine decline in the school-age population associated with the collapse of the housing sector," Denslow said.

Paucity of pupils - Gainesville Sun - March 11, 2009

After 21 years at the same Fort Lauderdale boat company, Robert Mulder lost his job. Mulder was laid off in November along with dozens of his co-workers, and now they face a job market that's expected to get worse.

Mass layoffs are putting more people like Mulder out of work. The U.S. Department of Labor said Wednesday that 238,000 people lost their jobs in mass layoffs nationwide in January, a 60 percent increase from January 2007.

The layoffs, which the Labor Department says affected 19,301 Floridians in January, cut across industries and geography.

The department defines mass layoffs as those involving 50 or more workers at a single company. Florida companies sometimes disclose smaller cuts to the state but also may fail to disclose larger cuts.

To some extent, mass layoffs are a normal part of the business cycle. While some industries rise, others fall.

Whatever the causes, mass layoffs can have a deep and lasting effect. Those laid off tend to be older and have years invested in their careers, said University of Florida economist Dave Denslow.

These people have found work they are comfortable with, and are abruptly forced to start over.

"It takes them a long time to find a new job,'' Denslow said, adding they often have to take a pay cut. What's more, research suggests that even years later, they may still be making less than their peers who were never let go.

"On average,'' Denslow said, "you're hurt forever.''

19,301 Floridians laid off in January - Palm Beach Post - February 26, 2009

Number crunchers tracking the state's unemployment cautioned that the news could be grim after an annual revision of years worth of data.

Boy, were they right.

Turns out the recession gripping Florida has been even deeper than reported, with monthly estimates overlooking thousands of lost jobs in construction and retail. The upshot: Economists now think the state will lag the rest of the country in recovery, shoving back expectations of a Florida turnaround into 2010.

The Florida Economic Estimating Conference this week predicted that "normal economic growth" won't return until the end of 2010.

University of Florida economist David Denslow said the next report could show Florida's unemployment reached 9 percent in February. Both the jump in unemployment and the stock market plummet are crimping personal spending and postponing any semblance of recovery, he said.

A closer look at employment data reveals: It's worse than we thought - St. Petersburg Times - March 7, 2009

From "The Mike Thomas Blog" - Orlando Sentinel

Last month I wrote that Florida was heading into a Depression Lite. Now one of the state's leading economists is saying the same thing.

I lifted this off a St. Pete Times blog.

University of Florida economics professor David Denslow began his presentation to a collection of policy committees in the Florida House today with a word of encouragement. "Florida is going to be just fine,'' he said. Then he hit them with the trend lines, the numbers and the bottom line:

“I think this is going to be really, really bad,'' Denslow said. "We’re not talking about the Great Depression. We’re talking about something reasonably close to it. ... We’ve got to be ready for it.”

"We’re going through a structural change,'' he explained. With adjectives like "brutal," "phenomenal" and "this gets rough," the normally placid Denslow described how construction is not going to be as important as it was. Population growth is not going to be the economic driver Florida has become used to. The financial sector is going to shrink. Government employment will continue to decline. Manufacturing in Florida will continue to decline and be a smaller share of the workforce. Home ownership will continue to drop.

Nationally, the net debt to present value is $52 trillion. By contrast, the net worth of all Americans is now 41 trillion.

This structural change will result in unprecedented trends, he said. For instance, for the first time there has been a decline in electrical hookups in Florida since the Bureau of Economic and Business Research has been counting--"a really phenomenal thing for a rapidly growing thing like Florida,'' he said.

School enrollment is plateauing in Florida, unlike in any other Southeastern state, and Denslow predicts three additional years of low population growth.

"The rewards will go to those with really good job skills ... greater skill and creativity,'' he said.

Depression lite: Part II - Orlando Sentinel - February 5, 2009

University of Florida economics professor David Denslow began his presentation to a collection of policy committees in the Florida House today with a word of encouragement. "Florida is going to be just fine,'' he said. Then he hit them with the trend lines, the numbers and the bottom line:

“I think this is going to be really, really bad,'' Denslow said. "We’re not talking about the Great Depression. We’re talking about something reasonably close to it. ... We’ve got to be ready for it.”

"We’re going through a structural change,'' he explained. With adjectives like "brutal," "phenomenal" and "this gets rough," the normally placid Denslow described how construction is not going to be as important as it was. Population growth is not going to be the economic driver Florida has become used to. The financial sector is going to shrink. Government employment will continue to decline. Manufacturing in Florida will continue to decline and be a smaller share of the workforce. Home ownership will continue to drop.

We're close to Great Depression, expert says - St. Petersburg Times - February 4, 2009

Dr. Paula Stowell, a family physician and psychiatrist, was quite pleased earlier this month when she offered $200,000 to the bank for a house in Crescent Beach listed at $239,000.

The offer was accepted.

But even better, Stowell said, was that the two-story house built in 1932 had been previously sold for $540,000.

[Robin] Arnold is only one of the many St. Johns County real estate agents and mortgage brokers who said they've noticed a "surge" in real estate showings and sales for December and January.

Many local agents believe this recent activity comes from low mortgage rates and low home prices.

But David A. Denslow, a professor and economist with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, offered another reason. He said square-foot prices for homes in St. Augustine are selling for 60 percent of the national average.

"Prices have fallen. The people who are selling are being much more flexible about the prices they will accept," Denslow said.

Home sales rebound - St. Augustine Record - January 25, 2009

SPRING HILL — Every day Robin Street goes to work at Linens 'n Things, she is surrounded by the reality of her future. Plastered everywhere, big and small, red and yellow, the signs scream: "Going Out of Business Sale."

They serve as beacons to bargain shoppers. But to Street, who has spent 30 years in the retail field, they signal something much different: impending unemployment.

"I'm not sure what's next," the 51-year-old Spring Hill resident said earlier this week. "No one is hiring. It's bad in Hernando County."

Street's situation is only expected to spread as the threatening recession claims its latest victim, the retail industry. Even with epic deals expected for Friday — one of the biggest shopping days of the year — major retailers are anticipating less than stellar sales.

And now, though previously unimaginable, economic experts are warning that a prolonged slide in retail trade could prove worse.

Based on economic forecasts and retail's prominence here, University of Florida economist David Denslow said it is likely "more jobs will be lost in retail than in the construction (bust)."

Retailers expected to take hard hit - St. Petersburg Times - November 27, 2008

More on this topic:
On Black Friday, spending less, wanting more - Sarasota Herald-Tribune - November 29, 2008

A University of Florida economist said the reason many Americans are financially strapped is simple: Prices are rising and wages are not.

David Denslow, who works for UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said that overall, the retail price index has increased in the past five years about 2 percent to 2.5 percent. This index indicates what people pay for food, housing, medical care and other goods and services.

He said that during the 1990s, prices rose about the same, but pay was keeping up. These days, it's a different story.

"Two and a half percent a year is not inflation to worry about a great deal," Denslow said recently. "The worry is that pay isn't rising as fast for the average person, for the median household. What is happening now is that you find the prices have gone up more than wages have for the average family, which is a bit of a puzzle because output per worker has been going up."

Pinching pennies- Gainesville Sun - November 13, 2008

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Pinching pennies - Ocala Star Banner - November 13, 2008

ST. PETERSBURG -- In case they didn't know it from their own books, a group of Florida business executives heard this message from a pair of economists here Thursday: Business is pretty bad right now.

The state's economy already was in trouble from the housing market bust when the national financial system meltdown added to our woes, University of Florida economist Dave Denslow told the board of Enterprise Florida, a statewide economic development agency, at its quarterly meeting.

''Florida has been in a recession for about a year now,'' Denslow said. ``It hasn't been that severe a recession. Now we get the national recession on top of it.''

Population growth, which helped pull Florida out of past downturns, has slowed drastically. In fact, for the first time since UF researchers began keeping track 40 years ago, the number of electric hookups in the state actually fell slightly in September, Denslow said. Electric hookups are an important clue that UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research uses in estimating population growth.

''Population growth has slowed very dramatically in this state,'' Denslow said.

He predicted that the state will remain in recession through the 3rd quarter of next year. Then the economy will likely remain flat until 2011, when a new influx of retired baby boomers could bring growth back.

Florida economic outlook called dim - Miami Herald - October 17, 2008

More on this topic:
Can Florida economy take a double whammy? - Miami Herald - October 19, 2008

ST. PETERSBURG -- In case they didn't know it from their own books, a group of Florida business executives heard this message from a pair of economists here Thursday: Business is pretty bad right now.

The state's economy already was in trouble from the housing market bust when the national financial system meltdown added to our woes, University of Florida economist Dave Denslow told the board of Enterprise Florida, a statewide economic development agency, at its quarterly meeting.

''Florida has been in a recession for about a year now,'' Denslow said. ``It hasn't been that severe a recession. Now we get the national recession on top of it.''

Meanwhile, population growth, which helped pull Florida out of past downturns, has slowed drastically. In fact, for the first time since UF researchers began keeping track 40 years ago, the number of electric hookups in the state actually fell slightly in September, Denslow said.

Electric hookups are an important clue that UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research uses in estimating population growth.

''Population growth has slowed very dramatically in this state,'' Denslow said.

He predicted that the state will remain in recession through the 3rd quarter of next year. Then the economy will likely remain flat until 2011, when a new influx of retired baby boomers could bring back growth.

Economy to stay bad for a while, Florida business execs told - Miami Herald - October 16, 2008

Although the $700 billion economic bailout was passed Friday within a week of debate, it may take longer before the economy feels its effects.

The country’s recession will probably last between about nine months and a year, Denslow said. Without the bailout, it would probably have lasted at least two years.

Denslow said the 778–point drop in the stock market Monday following the House’s denial was a wake–up call that helped to change many Congressmen’s minds.

“It’s becoming clearer that we are in a recession,” he said.

The effects of that recession can be seen beyond Wall Street, especially in Florida, which has been in a recession for about a year, he said. The recent poor housing market has left many Florida banks unclear on mortgage values and unable to hand out loans.

Denslow said many banks have been hoarding money in fear of an economic collapse.

“Any bank that can get its hands on cash is just holding it in case things get worse,” he said.

Congress passes bailout bill - Independent Florida Alligator - October 6, 2008

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Following months of bad news related to the mortgage market, each day in recent weeks has brought alarming financial news. Some analysts suggest this could become the worst economic situation since the Great Depression.

This onslaught of bad news has created a lot of questions about what is going on and how it affects the average person. The faculty of the University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business Administration will host a special panel discussion Oct. 2 to help the public make sense of the current economic situation.

The expert panel will be moderated by professor Jay Ritter and will include renowned authorities in their respective fields: David Denslow, Mark Flannery, Mike Ryngaert and Doug Waldo. It starts at 6:15 p.m. in Bryan Hall Room 130.

The financial crisis of 2008: Expert panel of UF faculty will discuss the how, the why, and what happens now - Inside UF - September 25, 2008

TALLAHASSEE | Already burdened with a moribund real estate market and historic spending cuts, Florida's budget blues may deepen through 2010 and beyond with the turmoil on Wall Street limiting a rebound.

Florida economists said Monday that it was too early to fully assess the impact from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the government bailout of home loan giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the 500-plus point drop in the Dow Jones average on Monday - the sixth largest drop in history.

But David Denslow, a professor at the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said the uncertainty could further limit lenders' willingness to provide the needed loans to buy homes - the core of Florida's economy.

"If this has been out there for three or four days and the market comes to think that this is really going to threaten their balance sheets, then this would make things noticeably worse in Florida," he said.

Already-Hurting Fla. Takes New Hits - The Ledger - September 16, 2008

An unstable economy is forcing thousands of children to leave Florida's private schools for a public education or lessons taught by Mom and Dad at home.

About 14,000 students were taken out of private schools last school year -- part of an exodus of more than 46,000 kids since 2004, according to numbers released this week by the Florida Department of Education.

And officials expect the number to keep climbing.

Florida is following a nationwide trend, economists say, as parents struggle with a housing and banking crisis, rising inflation and unemployment. Some are chasing new jobs out of state, and others are deciding they simply can't afford private-school tuition, which can cost about $5,500 to $8,000 a year in Central Florida.

David Denslow, a professor and researcher at UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said the loss of jobs in managerial, scientific and engineering fields may have hurt private schools. Those employees, he said, are especially likely to send kids to private school.

Unaffordable: Economy shatters private-school dreams - Orlando Sun-Sentinel - August 23, 2008