Congratulations. The recession is over.

Uncle Sam (a.k.a. the Department of Commerce) reported Thursday that the economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the first positive upswing in 15 months.

But few are buying the argument that our economic winter has ended, particularly in Florida. Not with rising, double-digit unemployment and surging credit card defaults.

The increase in economic output was fueled by one-time government stimulus programs boosting auto and home sales. It benefited from comparisons to the third quarter of 2008 when credit markets seized up and the country's biggest financial institutions were in disarray.

Nonetheless, it was a bigger increase than expected and enough to fuel optimism, albeit tempered. "This is just the beginning," Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Thursday, adding, "The recession is still alive."

Florida's housing pipeline ramps up again

Home prices have inched up slightly in recent months, though still down more than 40 percent from the 2006 peak. It's hard for Florida's housing industry to gain traction until foreclosures abate and retirees up north can sell their homes and relocate. A recent mortgage applications survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a large decline in applications for both new mortgages and refinancing. Chris McCarty of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research said that suggests home sales and possibly prices may fall anew once the first-time homebuyers tax credit expires in December.

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Five signs that will signal Florida's recession is ending - St. Petersburg Times - October 30, 2009

What's on the minds of Florida consumers? Just now, according to a new University of Florida survey, they're feeling more optimistic about their current personal finances but not so comfortable with the U.S. economy.

And the good-news-bad-news scenario for our local merchants is that consumers plan to be shopping for the holidays — but primarily if there are plenty of yesteryear price tags out there.

Consumers remain "bullish on buying opportunities and are likely to be even more optimistic when they see the drastically lower prices in the coming months from retailers trying to boost holiday sales among the most cautious U.S. consumers since the Great Depression," Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, told the Gainesville Sun.

The UF survey found the confidence level among Floridians flattened off in October after rising a little in August and September. Concerns about the state's jobless rating, now at 11 percent, and pessimism about the lack of jobs and lower salaries fuel a reticence to spend, even among those currently employed.

Our Opinion: Recession-numb buyers make the case for change - Tallahassee Democrat - October 29, 2009

Home prices in South Florida continued to eke out modest gains even as confidence in the economy stalled, according to two widely-watched reports released Tuesday, sending mixed messages to a jittery market during the run-up to the critical holiday-shopping season.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties climbed 1.1 percent from July to August -- its fourth consecutive gain. Nationally, the index was up 1.2 percent.

Meanwhile, after improving for three straight months, Florida's Consumer Confidence Index was flat in October versus September. The survey is key because consumers account for about two-thirds of all spending and their confidence levels are often an accurate predictor of retail sales.

Chris McCarty, the survey director from the University of Florida, said consumers are torn. While they recognize that deep discounts make it a good time to shop, double-digit unemployment and unease over their personal finances make them wary.

With many economists predicting either flat or slightly better sales over last year's dismal performance, ``nobody is expecting it to be a very good holiday season,'' he said.

Indexes give mixed signals - Miami Herald - October 28, 2009

Florida consumers are still worried about the recession, though they're buoyed by huge buying opportunities this season, a new University of Florida survey finds.

"Consumers are more optimistic this month about their current personal finances and less optimistic about the U.S. economy in both the short and long term," said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

"They remain bullish on buying opportunities and are likely to be even more optimistic when they see the drastically lower prices in the coming months from retailers trying to boost holiday sales among the most cautious U.S. consumers since the Great Depression."

Overall, the UF survey found consumer confidence flat at 72 in October.

Retailers are bracing for another disappointing holiday season. Given Florida's reliance on sales taxes to fuel three-fourths of its budget, that could add to the state's fiscal woes.

With decreasing revenues and increasing costs, the state could see a $2.6 billion budget deficit, McCarty projected.

"That will mean increased taxes and fees and certainly more cost-cutting by the Florida Legislature as the spring session unfolds," he said.

UF also downgraded its initial report of September consumer confidence to 72 from 74. McCarty, who had been surprised by the 74 showing last month, said the data were revised to reflect an additional week of interviews.

"The revision downward and the flat reading this month is more in line with what we had been expecting," he said.

The October index was based on 408 interviews. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

Florida consumers aren't more confident, but they're expecting bargains - St. Petersburg Times - October 27, 2009

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Florida’s consumer confidence remains flat amid mixed economic news - University of Florida News - October 27, 2009
Florida Consumer Confidence Index flat in October - South Florida Business Journal - October 27, 2009
Florida consumer confidence flat as the national mood sours - Miami Herald - October 27, 2009
Florida consumer confidence slips in Oct. - Gainesville Sun - October 27, 2009
UF: State Consumer Confidence Remains Flat - GlobeSt.com - October 27, 2009

Two key economic markers in Florida -- consumer confidence and a much-watched home price index -- showed a second consecutive month of improvement, offering further evidence the recession is easing, though a long recovery likely awaits.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed South Florida home prices posted their second, though modest, monthly gain of 1.3 percent in July, as strong sales and shrinking inventory helped to firm up prices. The index, however, was still down from a year ago, by 21 percent.

Nationally, consumer confidence dipped by 1.4 percent to 53.1 in September, according to The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group. That not a good sign for retailers whose hopes are pegged to robust holiday spending.

Bucking the national trend, however, new figures from the University of Florida show consumer confidence rose three points in September to 74, following a revised increase of four points in August. The two-month trend indicates more than a margin of error as previous blips in the index may have suggested.

``This is real,'' said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business. ``Consumers have been hearing the recession is over, or the worst of it, and this is a reflection of that,'' he said.

Stabilization of the stock market, falling gas prices and a bottoming-out in home values in many parts of the state have helped, McCarty said. ``A big part of the problem was the lack of knowledge of what your wealth actually was. A house is a big part of wealth and when prices are falling you just don't know what you have,'' he said.

Floridians, however, are still pessimistic about the state of their own personal finances. The UF survey showed that consumer sentiment stayed at 44 in September, the same as the previous month, which is only five points better than its lowest point ever in December.

Signs point to recession's easing in Florida - Miami Herald - September 30, 2009

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Belief that a national economic recovery is under way boosted Florida’s consumer confidence three points to 74 in September, according to a new University of Florida survey.

“I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over and we have avoided a complete meltdown,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Once again they have surprised us with a higher than expected index.”

This month’s three-point rise follows a four-point revised increase in August. Of the five components that make up September’s index, three rose, one declined and one was unchanged. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 44, only five points above its all-time low of 39 in December. Expectations about personal finances a year from now fell three points to 81.

In contrast, perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose three points to 75, while expectations about economic conditions over the next five years rose five points to 86. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, such as appliances and cars, rose nine points to 84.

“It is worth noting that the two index components that gauge perceptions of personal finances both now and in the future are flat or down,” McCarty said. “All of the increase is in perceptions of future economic conditions and in the perception that if you have the money it’s a good time to buy.”

There are some signs that the economy is improving, he said.

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Florida’s consumer confidence rises as economic fears ease - University of Florida News - September 29, 2009

Floridians are a bit more confident in the economy, with the consumer confidence level up three points to 74 in September, according to a new University of Florida survey.

The three-point increase follows a four-point revised increase in August.

However, the national consumer confidence level, which was also up in August, dipped to 53.1 from 54.5.

“I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over and we have avoided a complete meltdown,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business, in a news release.

However, he also warned that, as the holiday season nears and stimulus programs such as the first-time homebuyer tax credit expires, consumer confidence could decline at least a point or two.

The confidence index is made up of five components. Three were up, one was down and one was unchanged.

Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 44, only five points above the all-time low of 39 in December. Expectations about personal finances a year from now fell three points, to 81.

Read full story:
Consumer confidence up in Fla., down in U.S. - South Florida Business Journal - September 29, 2009

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Fla. consumer confidence improves beyond expectations - Ocala Star Banner - September 29, 2009
Florida consumers feeling better about economy - Tampa Tribune - September 29, 2009
Florida consumers feeling better about economy - Tampa Bay Online - September 29, 2009
Two key economic indicators show improvement - Miami Herald - September 29, 2009
National, state views of economy are divided - St. Petersburg Times - September 29, 2009
Fla. consumer confidence improves beyond expectations - Gainesville Sun - September 29, 2009
Floridians Feeling More Confident - Jacksonville Observer - September 30, 2009

Finally, retail sales figures are poised to turn positive.

But don't get too excited about forecasts that consumer spending, the biggest single component driving the U.S. economy, will edge back into the black for the Christmas holiday.

What's happened is retail sales — and their key role in when the recession actually ends — are about to start being compared to last fall. That's when sales dropped off a cliff and stayed there after the financial markets meltdown.

"Consumers think things are getting better partly because they are spending money they actually have rather than taking on more debt," said Chris McCarty, who Tuesday will post another solid gain in the Florida Consumer Confidence Index at the University of Florida. "But I think they're starting be more confident than is warranted."

Retail sales poised to turn positive, but don't get too excited - St. Petersburg Times - September 28, 2009

BROOKSVILLE - There has been a 41.5 percent decline in the average sales price of a single-family home in the past three years, according to new information from the property appraiser's office. That is a "sobering" statistic, said Nick Nikkinen, director of special projects for the property appraiser's office. Property Appraiser Alvin Mazourek said he has been property appraiser since 1997, and this is the first year he's seen any significant value drops in terms of home prices that affect tax assessments. "I've never seen the market like this," he said. "Oh, there have been some ups and downs and bumps, but this has been the most fluctuation in values I've ever seen."

And next year should be worse.

"I think basically it's going to be bad, if not worse, as far as actual values of homes and all types of property dropping," Mazourek said. With only 632 single-family home sales through July 1, the county will be hard-pressed to match the 1,619 total achieved in 2008, he said. "I know Realtors are hoping that we've hit bottom, but I don't know," he said. "I don't have a crystal ball."

The new report, which charts historic averages of countywide single-family home price sales, shows that 2003 was the first year Hernando County experienced a double-digit increase — 11.69 percent — in the average sales price from the prior year. Those percentage increases rose steadily through 2005, when it reached a peak of 25.74 percent. In 2006, the percentage change was 16.95 percent. The following year, the bottom fell out. In 2007, for the first time, the county experienced a negative percent change of minus 11.24 percent, followed in 2008 by a minus 15.42 percent change. Through July 1 of this year, there is already a 14.91 percent decline in the average sales price of a single-family home.

Meanwhile, the Florida Association of Realtors issued a report Wednesday that said rising housing prices, stock market gains and the lack of any new setbacks in the national economy have boosted Florida's consumer confidence three points to 70 this month, according to a University of Florida survey. That has led to some encouraging signs in the state's housing market, Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said in a press release. "We are not out of this recession yet, particularly here in Florida, but things are not nearly as bad as they were a year ago," McCarty said. Home sales have picked up both nationally and in Florida, and falling prices suggest a bottoming out of the housing slump, McCarty said. If foreclosures continue, they could depress home prices, McCarty said. The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that 23 percent of Florida mortgages in the second quarter of 2009 were either in foreclosure or late on payments.

Home prices drop 41.5% in 3 years - Hernando Today - August 27, 2009

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Rising housing prices, stock market gains and the lack of any new setbacks in the national economy boosted Florida’s consumer confidence three points to 70 this month, according to a new University of Florida survey.

“We had anticipated an increase in consumer confidence in August based on what appeared to be an unjustifiable two-point drop in July following what was already a two-point decline the previous month,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “While the economic environment is by no means bright, the decline in July seemed unsustainable given the lack of any very bad economic news and some encouraging signs in Florida’s housing market and the stock market.”

Three of the five components in the index rose, one fell and one stayed the same. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 43, still only four points above its all-time low of 39. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year jumped 10 points to 73; perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose eight points to 80; and perceptions of personal finances a year from now increased five points to 84. The only component to drop was perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, which fell five points to 72.

“We are not out of this recession yet, particularly here in Florida, but things are not nearly as bad as they were a year ago,” he said.

Home sales have picked up both nationally and in Florida, and falling prices suggest a bottoming out of the housing slump, McCarty said. The latest report from the Florida Association of Realtors shows median prices for existing single-family homes flat from last month and still up for the year, he said.

If foreclosures continue, they could depress home prices, McCarty said. The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that 23 percent of Florida mortgages in the second quarter of 2009 were either in foreclosure or late on payments, he said.

Good news about housing and stocks lifts Florida’s consumer confidence - University of Florida News - August 25, 2009

More on this topic:
UF survey shows state's consumers growing confident - Herald-Tribune - August 27, 2009
Consumer confidence: Florida, national indications show economic gloom lifting - Sun Sentinel - August 26, 2009
Housing among encouraging signs in Florida consumer confidence - Tampa Bay Business Journal- August 25, 2009
Gloomy outlook on economy lifting slightly among consumers - Palm Beach Post - August 25, 2009
State Consumer Confidence Rebounds - GlobeSt.com - August 25, 2009
Consumer confidence improves in Fla., U.S. - Ocala Star Banner - August 25, 2009
Florida consumer confidence inches up, and so do home prices - Miami Herald - August 25, 2009
Consumer confidence rebounds - South Florida Business Journal - August 25, 2009

WASHINGTON - Six months after Congress approved billions to stimulate the economy, Florida's share is trickling into the state to build roads, shore up gaps in Medicaid and meet a host of local needs.

So far it has not created many jobs.

Employment services in South Florida say the economic-recovery dollars have had little impact on the job market, leaving many job-seekers disillusioned and sometimes desperate.

The initial results indicate that the vaunted stimulus bill will help many people survive hard times, largely by extending unemployment benefits. It may have stemmed layoffs, especially in schools and local governments.

The White House said Florida has paid out $2.89 billion of the $8.34 billion that has been made available under the recovery act. At least $11.19 billion is expected to come to the state in the next two years. More will come as the result of competitive grants.

"It has not done much to lower unemployment in Florida," said Chris McCarty, director of the Survey Research Center at the University of Florida's Bureau of Business and Economic Research. "But it has probably gone a long way to support people who are unemployed and provide them with temporary assistance they need as the economy turns around."

The challenge in Florida, he said, is to find a way to replace the thousands of construction-related jobs that were lost when the state's vast growth ended with the real estate bust.

"It may be a really long time before those job losses are reversed," he said. "Many will never come back."

Federal stimulus creating few new jobs in Florida so far - Sun Sentinel - August 17, 2009

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Florida's population has declined for the first time in 63 years and economists blame the recession for empty classrooms, plunging tax revenues and a severe slowing of people moving to the Sunshine State.

The director of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research Stan Smith the population dropped by 58,000 people between 2008 and 2009. This is the first decline since large numbers of military personnel left the state in 1946 after World War II.

Fla. reports first population decline since 1946 - Associated Press - August 17, 2009

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BEST PRACTICES: Florida population declines for first time since 1946 - TCPalm.com Business Journal - August 23, 2009
It'll take a lot of digging to get out of this hole (Commentary) - Orlando Sentinel - August 20, 2009
Our Opinion: Shrink rap; Losing population, Florida must regroup - Tallahassee Democrat - August 20, 2009
Population Decrease - WRUF AM850 - August 19, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since ’46 - Bradenton Herald - August 18, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since 1946 - The Jacksonville Observer - August 18, 2009
Florida's population drops for the first time since 1946 - Miami Herald - August 18, 2009
Florida population sinks after six-decade run - The Florida Times Union - August 18, 2009
Florida’s population drops - South Florida Business Journal - August 18, 2009
Florida’s First Population Decline Since 1946 Squeezes Budget - Bloomberg.com - August 18, 2009
Florida's population drops for the first time in more than 60 years - Orlando Sentinel - August 17, 2009
Fla. population drops for 1st time since ’46 - KRDO News Channel 13, Colorado Springs, CO- August 17, 2009
No Sunshine in Florida - The Atlantic - August 17, 2009
On the Mat, Florida Wonders Which Way Is Up - New York Times - August 17, 2009
Florida's Population Is Shrinking - Miami New Times - August 17, 2009
Recession-battered Florida may have lost population - Orlando Sentinel - August 17, 2009
Florida's population boom fades; state will mark first decline in residents in more than 60 years - Tallahassee Democrat - August 13, 2009
Florida's population boom fades - Ft. Myers News Press - August 13, 2009
Florida's Population Shed About 50,000 Residents - St. Petersburg Times - August 12, 2009

WASHINGTON - Finally, a glimmer of good news has broken through the gloomy jobs picture.

A down-tick in the nation's unemployment rate has raised hopes that the economy is beginning to recover and will produce jobs quicker than expected.

Economists say this and other signs point to recovery, even in states such as Florida that were hit hardest by the recession. The waves of layoffs may be coming to an end.

They warn, however, that a slight shift in the unemployment rate — 9.4 percent in July, down from 9.5 percent in June, according to a Labor Department report Friday — could just reflect the thousands who have given up looking for work. Full recovery with significant job gains will not come until next year.

"It is good news," said David Denslow, an economist at the University of Florida. "Even though statistically speaking it's not really a change, it is certainly better than what might have happened. The expectation was that it would be substantially worse, and we would see an unemployment rate as high as 9.7 or 9.8 percent."

Florida and other Sunbelt states took the brunt of the recession when housing values plummeted and construction jobs melted away.

"The system is in place for recovery. Housing prices, even here in Florida, are stabilizing," said Chris McCarty, public survey director at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. "But it's going to be a long haul to re-employ the large numbers who have lost their jobs. I think unemployment will continue at a high level until about the middle of 2010."

Slight dip in unemployment rate raises hope - Sun Sentinel - August 8, 2009

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The state’s double-digit unemployment rate is likely to blame for a two-point drop in Florida’s consumer confidence in July to 67, despite good news about housing prices and the stock market, a new University of Florida survey finds.

“We had expected consumer confidence to fluctuate between the upper 60s and low 70s for the next few months, but given the current economic climate, this decline comes as a bit of a surprise,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Consumers’ increasing pessimism about long-term economic conditions and the outlook for their personal finances account for most of the downturn, McCarty said. “Given that the stock market is now up for the year and housing is showing strong signs of stabilizing, I would attribute much of this decline to the news about employment,” he said.

Florida’s consumer confidence dips as bleak employment picture persists - University of Florida News - July 28, 2009

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Floridians confidence in the economy slips - South Florida Business Journal - July 28, 2009
Florida consumers' confidence again declines - Miami Herald - July 28, 2009
Florida Consumer Confidence - WJHG News Panama City - July 28, 2009
Consumer confidence nationally and in Florida both down - St. Petersburg Times - July 29, 2009
Florida, U.S. consumers feeling less confident - Miami Herald, Business - July 29, 2009
Americans still gloomy on economy - Florida Today - July 29, 2009

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida’s consumer confidence fell three points in June to 68, possibly because of new and increased state fees for residents, General Motors’ bankruptcy and a spike in Florida’s unemployment rate a new University of Florida survey finds.

The index components were mixed, with perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago up three points to 44 from a revised May reading of 41 but still near historical lows. All others were lower than or the same as last month.

Perceptions of personal finances a year from now fell six points to 84, and perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year fell seven points to 65 — it was 51 at this time last year. Perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items fell nine points to 67. Finally, perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years remained unchanged at 80.

“In the previous two releases we had suggested the possibility of a small decline in confidence in June, which seems to have been the case,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “This is most likely a combination of the fallout from the Florida state budget, which includes several new and increased fees, as well as the bankruptcy of GM.”

Florida’s consumer confidence drops as bad economic news persists - University of Florida News - June 30, 2009

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Consumer confidence retreats - South Florida Business Journal - June 30, 2009
Florida consumer confidence falls three points in June - St. Petersburg Times - June 30, 2009
Fla., US consumer confidence down - Gainesville Sun - June 30, 2009
Florida consumers are more worried than before about the economy, a three point drop - WJHG News Channel 7 Panama City - June 30, 2009
Consumer confidence falls in Florida, nation - Miami Herald - June 30, 2009
Director of research at Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta says it'll be a "limp-along" recovery - St. Petersburg Times - July 1, 2009
Confidence slides back: Well-watched consumer survey takes troubling downturn in June - Tallahassee Democrat - July 1, 2009
Consumer confidence retreats - Orlando Business Journal - July 1, 2009

NEW YORK — Although consumer confidence may be increasing, it's not showing up at the cash register yet. Many retailers posted disappointing May sales on Thursday, and food and necessities remained high on shoppers' lists.

According to a Goldman Sachs/ICSC tally, overall same-store sales fell 4.6 percent, worse than the 3-percent drop predicted. The lower-than-expected results did not include Wal-Mart, which in recent months has boosted total results, but has stopped reporting monthly figures.

In Florida, consumer confidence has increased four of the five months of 2009 as perceptions about personal finances and national economic conditions continue to improve.

"The makeup of the consumer confidence index in May reflects optimism about the economy in the short run," said Chris McCarty, survey director of the Florida Consumer Confidence Index in a recent new release. "Floridians are saying in May they don't have the money to buy, but they expect to within a year."

May sales slower for retailers - Tallahassee Democrat - June 5, 2009

National consumer confidence posted its second large increase in two months. But Florida consumer sentiment was essentially flat in May, according to figures released Tuesday.

The national Consumer Confidence Index was up 14 points this month, to 54.9, according to the Conference Board, the New-York based group that conducts the monthly survey. Driving this was the ''Expectations Index,'' which is the part of the survey that measures beliefs about the future. That part was up 22 points, to 72.3.

Sentiment about the present was up a more modest 3.4 points, to 28.9.

Meanwhile, the University of Florida's state consumer confidence index was up one point to 71 in May after a sharp increase in April.

As with the national survey, expectations about the future were up. For example, expectations of personal finances a year from now rose five points to 90, the highest since October 2007.

But the part of the survey measuring perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell four points to 40, one point above an all-time low set in December.

''Floridians are saying they don't have the money now to buy, but they expect to within a year,'' said Chris McCarty, director of the Survey Research Center at UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Consumer confidence up nationally, but Floridians still on fence - Miami Herald - May 26, 2009

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Floridians’ consumer confidence edges down - South Florida Business Journal - May 26, 2009
Florida consumer confidence declines - Tampa Bay Online - May 26, 2009
Florida’s consumer confidence slips amid doubts about personal finances - University of Florida News - May 26, 2009
Florida consumer confidence shaky in the short-term - St. Petersburg Times - May 26, 2009
Florida consumer confidence - WJHG News, Panama City Beach - May 26, 2009
Floridians’ consumer confidence edges down - Tampa Bay Business Journal - South Florida Business Journal - May 26, 2009
Floridia consumer confidence shrinks - Tampa Tribune - May 27, 2009

TALLAHASSEE — Like millions of people across the state, Florida government will be living hand to mouth for the next year.

Nearly every dollar in revenue will be spent — including $5.3 billion expected from the federal government. Some trust funds built up during years of plenty will be drained.

And, unlike many of its citizens, the state can't take a second job — so it will be providing fewer services but taxing more.

Get used to it, economists and legislators say. Lawmakers will likely be back budget-cutting and tax-raising again.

Economists predict that the state's growth-dependent economy will come back, but not until 2012 — after the rest of the nation revs up.

"It's not going to be anything like it was in the last decade or two," said Chris McCarthy, economist with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Florid tax system called fundamentally flawed - St. Petersburg Times - May 10, 2009

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer confidence among Floridians surged six points to 71 in April amid indicators of flattening housing prices statewide and news that the economy has not worsened, a new University of Florida survey finds.

“The size of the increase comes as somewhat of a surprise,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “We had expected confidence among Florida’s consumers to move up and down in a fairly narrow window from the low to the upper 60s.”

While there are certainly some signs that the economy may be improving, such as housing prices possibly hitting their lowest point, many negative conditions still exist, such as continuing job losses, McCarty said. Florida’s unemployment rate of 9.7 percent is the highest since 1976, he said.

“However, in balance, consumers seem to have absorbed most of the bad news and are at least not seeing things getting much worse,” he said. “Perhaps we really have seen the bottom in terms of Florida consumer confidence, which was back in June of last year.”

Florida’s consumer confidence jumps six points as housing signs improve - University of Florida News - April 28, 2009
Consumer confidence surges - University of Florida News - April 28, 2009 (Video)

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Survey: Floridians’ confidence surges - South Florida Business Journal - April 28, 2009
Florida consumer confidence makes unexpected jump - St. Petersburg Times - April 28, 2009
Consumer confidence improves in Fla., US - Ocala Star Banner - April 28, 2009
Florida consumer survey results surprisingly upbeat - Palm Beach Post - April 28, 2009
Survey Floridians’ confidence surges - Tampa Bay Business Journal- April 28, 2009
Consumers surprisingly optimistic this month - Miami Herald - April 28, 2009
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Consumer confidence improves in Fla. - Gainesville Sun - April 28, 2009
Consumer confidence on the rise - Tampa Bay Online - April 29, 2009
Consumer confidence increases - WRUF AM850- April 30, 2009

On Wall Street, the stock market has gone up 12 days out of the past 20. Consumer confidence is up a tick, in Florida and across the nation. Even the housing and auto industries are showing unexpected signs of life.

In the steady downbeat of news about the economy in recession, a few signs of hope have surfaced, including Thursday's 216-point rally of the Dow Jones industrial average. A broad rally washed from Asia to Europe and finally to Wall Street, lifting the major indexes about 3percent as global leaders at the Group of 20 summit in London pledged $1.1 trillion in loans and guarantees to shore up struggling nations.

A turnaround? No one expects that from the economy this year. But there are indications that the economy may be close to hitting bottom, economists say.

"We may be shedding jobs for a little while," said Chris McCarty, who runs the Florida consumer-confidence surveys. "But on the bright side, it does look like the stock market is developing a floor here."

Signs of hope for the economy - (Ft. Lauderdale) Sun Sentinel - April 3, 2009

The federal government wants to put the auto industry back on the road and consumers in the driver's seat — and now is even willing to make sure you keep that new car running, as long as you buy American.

President Barack Obama on Monday announced the government would back General Motors and Chrysler vehicle warranties. That ensures consumers will have major repairs covered if the companies go into bankruptcy.

The bailout plan was the latest in a string of federally backed incentives and proposals designed to restore customer confidence and steer buyers back into dealerships, where sales nationwide are down about 40 percent this year over last.

Will it work?

Some dealers and consumer experts are cautiously optimistic, with government and dealership perks arriving as some car shoppers realize they can't afford to hold onto their aging jalopies any longer. But for prospective car buyers shopping South Florida lots Monday, the Obama plan barely registered.

Chris McCarty, survey director for the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, predicted sales could increase in the year ahead because there is now "probably some pent-up demand out there."

"Some spending is discretionary but most people, especially in Florida, need a car," he said.

South Florida car dealers hopeful about Obama's consumer incentives - South Florida Sun-Sentinel - March 31, 2009

The economic news de jour is playing a role in how Floridians feel about their future as it fluctuates from one day to the next.

While consumer confidence among those in the Sunshine State rose three points to 65 in March, a University of Florida researcher says it may have more to do with perception than reality.

"Until there is a clear message that things are changing for the better, we expect consumer confidence to continue to move up and down as conflicting economic news trickles in,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF's Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, in a news release.

The index measures five components, three of which rose and one of which remained unchanged.

Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose 12 points to 79, while perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose 10 points to 59.

Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose one point to 42, while perceptions of personal finances a year from now remained unchanged at 79.

Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items fell eight points to 64.

Since July 2008, consumer confidence has vacillated within an eight-point range, said McCarty.

"Increased home sales and a clear change in the stock market would both send messages to Floridians that the economic recovery is on its way," he said. "Until then, consumers are likely to remain pessimistic and cautious about spending."

The survey is based on 470 responses and is benchmarked to 1966. A value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

Survey: Floridians conflicted about economy - South Florida Business Journal - March 31, 2009

More on this topic:
Consumers cautious, but optimistic - Associated Press and South Florida Sun-Sentinel - March 31, 2009
Florida consumer confidence `relatively pessimistic' - Miami Herald - March 31, 2009
Florida’s consumer confidence index is up - Ocala Star Banner - March 31, 2009
Florida's Consumer Confidence Rises Despite Increasing Unemployment - WOKV - March 31, 2009
Florida's Consumer Confidence - WCTV - April 5, 2009

WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama's strategy for reviving the economy now turns largely on restoring public confidence, a psychological lift that would prompt consumers to shop, bankers to lend and investors to buy.

The president is racing from coast to coast to try to buck up consumers while the government pumps money into the economy, a theme sure to emerge at his nationally televised news conference set for 8 p.m. on Tuesday.

The message appears to be getting through to Floridians.

Surveys indicate that Florida consumers remain pessimistic. But a burst of federal aid, an uptick in stock markets, low interest rates and bargain prices have produced early signs of a changing mood that could set the stage for an economic turnaround.

Consumer surveys by the University of Florida point to a rising willingness to buy big-ticket items, such as cars and houses, despite fears that the recession will linger for many months.

"Clearly, what the administration is trying to do is pump money into the economy and get people to move it around," said Chris McCarty, who directs consumer confidence surveys at the University of Florida. "There are signs of a foundation for recovery, but it's probably far off. There's still a lot of pain caused by companies shedding jobs as they restructure."

McCarty's confidence index, based on the survey, drooped to a record low of 59 in June, when Floridians were beset by high fuel prices, plunging property values, high taxes and staggering insurance premiums.

The confidence index rose to 66 in January before slipping to 63 in February.

The index uses a baseline of 100, set by results of the first survey in 1966. The record high was 111 in August 2000. Ratings in the 70s are considered low, so last month's 63 reveals a prevailing pessimism.

Some encouraging signs are emerging.

Monthly surveys since summer indicate that Floridians are gradually more likely to say that "this is a good time to buy a major household item." Ratings on that question rose from 50 in June to 73 last month.

"Prices are falling enough that many people, despite the dismal economy, may be thinking it's an OK time to start buying," said David Denslow, an economist at the University of Florida. "This is a good sign. But it doesn't mean the economy is going to come roaring back."

Floridians want to shop again — but maybe not just yet, survey finds - Sun-Sentinel - March 21, 2009

Unemployment continues to rise in Lake and Sumter counties. Out-of-work residents flock to libraries and job fairs to apply for job openings. Employers are inundated with hundreds of job applications. With less disposable income, consumer confidence is dwindling. Here's a quick look at the state of unemployment, by the numbers.

13,055* -- The number of people in Lake County who were on unemployment benefits in January. Lake's unemployment rate rose by more than one percentage point to 9.7 percent in January. It's the highest jobless rate in Lake in more than 16 years.

2,559* -- The number of people in Sumter County who were on unemployment benefits in January. The jobless rate in Sumter rose by almost one percentage point from December to January, 6.9 to 7.8 percent...

63 -- Consumer confidence among Floridians in February 2009, according to the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. It's only four points above the all-time low in June 2008. The numbers reflect the level of consumer confidence compared to the base level of 100, benchmarked in 1966. The highest it's been was 111 in August 2000.

Numbers give overview of joblessness in Lake, Sumter - The Daily Commercial - March 15, 2009

Floridians' consumer confidence fell in February, as hopes dimmed that the nation would find a quick fix for the troubled economy. Nationwide, consumer confidence is now at an all-time low.

The University of Florida says its index of Florida's consumer confidence fell three points to 63. Survey Research Center Director Chris McCarty of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research said the indicator fell because "the novelty of a new administration met with the sustained reality of a faltering economy."

February's Consumer Attitude Survey index was four points above the all-time low of 59.

Consumer confidence slides in Florida - South Florida Sun Sentinel - February 24, 2009

More on this topic:
Florida’s consumer confidence declines as economic troubles sink in - University of Florida News - February 24, 2009
Confidence in economy fading - South Florida Business Journal - February 24, 2009
Consumer confidence falls among Floridians - St. Petersburg Times - February 25, 2009
Consumer confidence dips this month - Tallahassee Democrat - February 25, 2009
Consumer confidence, housing prices tumble - South Florida Sun Sentinel - February 25, 2009
Consumer confidence at its lowest - South Gainesville Sun - February 25, 2009
Lower consumer confidence levels - WQKV - March 8, 2009
Are we close to hitting bottom yet? - St. Petersburg Times - March 15, 2009