Population Studies

Population Studies

In defense of the net migrant

Net migration has been widely criticized as a theoretical concept and as a measure of population movement. Many of these criticisms are valid: net migration reflects a residual rather than a true migration process, it often masks large gross migration flows, it cannot account for differences in the characteristics of origin and destination populations, it cannot be used for rates in a probabilistic sense, and it can lead to misspecified causal models and unrealistic population projections.

An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida: April 1, 2000

The housing unit method is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States and is widely used in other countries as well. These estimates are used for a variety of budgeting, planning, and analytical purposes in both the public and private sectors; consequently, detailed evaluations of their accuracy are essential. In this study, we evaluate the precision and bias of April 1, 2000 population estimates for counties and subcounty areas in Florida.

Business Demography

Business demography encompasses the application of demographic concepts, data, and techniques to the practical concerns of business decision makers. This loosely organized field includes—but is not limited to—site selection, sales forecasting, financial planning, market assessment, consumer profiles, target marketing, litigation support, and labor force analysis. Specific applications have evolved over time, reflecting changes in data sources, computer technology, statistical techniques, and the business environment itself.

Small-Area Analysis

Spurred by new business applications and government programs, the demand for small-area demographic data and analysis has grown tremendously in recent decades. To meet that demand, analysts have drawn on an expanding set of data sources, statistical techniques, and computer applications. The result has been improved data quality across a broad spectrum of variables and geographic areas, enhancing both the usefulness and the importance of small-area analyses.

Confidence Intervals for Population Forecasts: A Case Study of Time Series Models for States

A number of studies have dealt with the use of time series models to develop confidence intervals for population forecasts. Most have focused solely on national-level models and only a few have considered the accuracy of the resulting forecasts. In this study, we take this research in a new direction by constructing time series models for several states in the United States and evaluating the resulting population forecasts.

An evaluation of Hispanic population estimates

Estimates of the Hispanic population have traditionally been based on historical trends, ratios, or some variant of the cohort-component method. In this article, we describe and test a methodology in which estimates of the Hispanic population are based on symptomatic indicators of population change such as births, deaths, and school enrollments. Methods. Using a variety of techniques, we develop Hispanic population estimates for counties in Florida. We evaluate the accuracy of those estimates by comparing them with 2000 census counts.

Assessing the Accuracy of Trend Extrapolation Methods for Population Projections: The Long View

Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Hilton Head, South Carolina This paper evaluates summary measures of population projection accuracy and bias for a large sample of counties and county equivalents in the continental United States over the period 1900–2000. The analysis has two primary purposes. The first is to investigate the relationship between accuracy and bias and the length of the projection horizon and base period.

Small-Area and Business Demography

A chain of supermarkets decides to launch a new line of ethnic foods. Where should it concentrate its marketing efforts? A school district is plagued by increasingly crowded elementary schools. Is this a temporary phenomenon or a continuing long-run trend? A hospital considers adding an obstetrics unit. Will anticipated service demand cover the additional costs? A metropolitan transportation agency plans to expand its rapid transit system. Where should new routes and transit stops be added? A manufacturer needs to build a new plant.

Florida Population Growth: Past, Present and Future

There are many "Floridas." There are the farms and small towns of north Florida, with families that have lived there for generations; the booming commercial and industrial areas of central Florida, creating new jobs and attracting young workers and their families from all over the United States; the retirement villages of southwest Florida, bringing thousands of snowbirds and retirees from northern states each year; and the enclaves of foreign-born residents in southeast Florida, bringing cultural diversity and a melting-pot ambiance to the region.

Florida’s 2004 Hurricane Season: Demographic Response and Recovery

In this study, we describe an approach that can be used to estimate the demographic impact of hurricanes and other natural disasters, provide a detailed assessment of the 2004 hurricane season in Florida, compare the 2004 hurricanes with Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Katrina (2005), and draw several conclusions regarding the likely impact of hurricanes and other natural disasters on future population growth.


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