Population Studies

Population Studies

Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments

Projections of total population have been evaluated extensively, but few studies have
investigated the performance of projections by age. Of those that did, most focused on
projections for countries or other large areas. In this article, we evaluate projections by age for
Florida and its counties, as produced and published between 1996 and 2010 by the Bureau of
Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida. We first compare the
precision and bias of projections of total population with the precision and bias of projections by

Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts

Small area population forecasts are used for a wide variety of planning and budgeting purposes.
Using 1970–2005 data for incorporated places and unincorporated areas in Florida, we evaluate
the accuracy of forecasts made with several extrapolation techniques, averages, and composite
methods, and assess the effects of differences in population size, growth rate, and length of
forecast horizon on forecast errors. We further investigate the impact of adjusting forecasts to

Making the Housing Unit Method Work: An Evaluation of 2010 Population Estimates in Florida

The housing unit (HU) method—in which population estimates are derived
fromestimates of occupiedHUs—is themost commonly usedmethod formaking smallarea
population estimates in the United States. It is widely used because it is conceptually
simple, can utilize a wide variety of data sources, can be applied at virtually any
level of geography, and often produces reliable estimates. Yet the HU method is more
nearly a general approach to population estimation than it is a specific methodology. In

Trends in Florida's Population Growth, 2000 to 2012

Florida’s population has grown rapidly in recent decades, but growth rates have fluctuated considerably from one year to the next. For example, the state’s population grew by more than 400,000 between 2004 and 2005 but by less than 100,000 between 2008 and 2009. What caused this high degree of volatility? To answer this question, we must look at the components of growth.

Annual Population Change, Florida, 2000-2012

How did the economic boom and bust of the past decade affect Florida's population growth? As this article shows, it had a huge impact.

County-to-county migration in Florida, 2005-2009

The 2005–2009 American Community Survey (ACS) county-to-county migration files, released in March 2012 by the U.S. Census Bureau, provide the first county-to-county migration flow tables since Census 2000. For small areas such as counties migration plays a major role in population change; often dwarfing the role of fertility and mortality. As such, the 2005–2009 ACS migration files provide an important snapshot of recent population changes impacting Florida counties.

The 2005–2009 American Community Survey county-to-county migration files are the first detailed migration flow tables since Census 2000 and provide an important snapshot of recent population changes impacting Florida counties.

An Analysis of Annual Migration Flows in Florida, 1980 – 2008

Florida has been one of the most rapidly growing states in the United States for many years, but growth rates have fluctuated considerably from one year to the next. Most of these fluctuations were caused by changes in the number of people moving into and out of the state. In this issue of Florida Focus, we examine annual migration trends in Florida from 1980 to 2008, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The data refer solely to people moving from one state to another; they do not include foreign immigrants.

The 2010 Census: How It's Done and Why It Matters

Where do you live? For many people this seemingly simple question doesn’t have a simple answer. Some retirees spend winters in Florida or Arizona and summers in New York or Minnesota. Others buy an RV and move from place to place, with no fixed place of residence. College students spend part of the year in their college towns and part in their home towns. Migrant farm workers often move from place to place over the course of a year, spending no more than a few weeks or months at any given location.

Empirical prediction intervals for county population forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination of the two.

Population forecast accuracy: Does the choice of summary measure of error matter?

Population projections are judged primarily by their accuracy. The most commonly used measure for the precision component of accuracy is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Recently, the MAPE has been criticized for overstating forecast error and other error measures have been proposed. This study compares the MAPE with two alternative measures of forecast error, the Median APE and an M-estimator. In addition, the paper also investigates forecast bias.

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