Demography

Demographic effects of natural disasters: A case study of Hurricane Andrew

Many studies have considered the economic, social, and psychological effects of hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and other natural disasters, but few have considered their demographic effects. In this paper we describe and evaluate a method for measuring the effects on Hurricane Andrew on the housing stock and population distribution in Dade County, Florida

Publication Date: 
05/01/1996
Author(s): 
Smith, Stanley K.; McCarty, Christopher
Pages: 
12 pages

Demography of disaster: Population estimates after Hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for fast-food restuarants.

Publication Date: 
12/01/1996
Author(s): 
Smith, Stanley K.
Pages: 
19 pages

Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models

This article is a review of–and response to–a special issue of Mathematical Population Studies that focused on the relative performance of simpler vs. more complex population projection models.

Publication Date: 
01/01/1997
Author(s): 
Smith, Stanley K.
Pages: 
9 pages

In defense of the net migrant

Net migration has been widely criticized as a theoretical concept and as a measure of population movement. Many of these criticisms are valid: net migration reflects a residual rather than a true migration process, it often masks large gross migration flows, it cannot account for differences in the characteristics of origin and destination populations, it cannot be used for rates in a probabilistic sense, and it can lead to misspecified causal models and unrealistic population projections.

Publication Date: 
01/01/1998
Author(s): 
Smith, Stanley K.; Swanson, David A.
Pages: 
16 pages

An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida: April 1, 2000

The housing unit method is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States and is widely used in other countries as well. These estimates are used for a variety of budgeting, planning, and analytical purposes in both the public and private sectors; consequently, detailed evaluations of their accuracy are essential. In this study, we evaluate the precision and bias of April 1, 2000 population estimates for counties and subcounty areas in Florida.

Publication Date: 
10/10/2002
Author(s): 
Smith, Stanley K.; Cody, Scott
Pages: 
41 pages

Confidence Intervals for Population Forecasts: A Case Study of Time Series Models for States

A number of studies have dealt with the use of time series models to develop confidence intervals for population forecasts. Most have focused solely on national-level models and only a few have considered the accuracy of the resulting forecasts. In this study, we take this research in a new direction by constructing time series models for several states in the United States and evaluating the resulting population forecasts.

Publication Date: 
04/01/2004
Author(s): 
Smith, Stanley K.; Tayman, Jeff
Pages: 
34 pages

Assessing the Accuracy of Trend Extrapolation Methods for Population Projections: The Long View

Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Hilton Head, South Carolina This paper evaluates summary measures of population projection accuracy and bias for a large sample of counties and county equivalents in the continental United States over the period 1900–2000. The analysis has two primary purposes. The first is to investigate the relationship between accuracy and bias and the length of the projection horizon and base period.

Publication Date: 
10/14/2004
Author(s): 
Rayer, Stefan
Pages: 
42 pages

Small-Area and Business Demography

A chain of supermarkets decides to launch a new line of ethnic foods. Where should it concentrate its marketing efforts? A school district is plagued by increasingly crowded elementary schools. Is this a temporary phenomenon or a continuing long-run trend? A hospital considers adding an obstetrics unit. Will anticipated service demand cover the additional costs? A metropolitan transportation agency plans to expand its rapid transit system. Where should new routes and transit stops be added? A manufacturer needs to build a new plant.

Publication Date: 
05/01/2005
Author(s): 
Smith, Stanley K.; Morrison, Peter
Pages: 
49 pages

Florida Population Growth: Past, Present and Future

There are many "Floridas." There are the farms and small towns of north Florida, with families that have lived there for generations; the booming commercial and industrial areas of central Florida, creating new jobs and attracting young workers and their families from all over the United States; the retirement villages of southwest Florida, bringing thousands of snowbirds and retirees from northern states each year; and the enclaves of foreign-born residents in southeast Florida, bringing cultural diversity and a melting-pot ambiance to the region.

Publication Date: 
06/01/2005
Author(s): 
Smith, Stanley K.
Pages: 
40 pages

Forecast Accuracy and Bias: Does the Choice of Summary Measure of Error Matter?

Population projections are primarily judged by their accuracy. The most commonly used measure to determine projection accuracy is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Recently, the MAPE has been criticized for overstating forecast error and other error measures have been proposed. This study compares the MAPE with two alternative measures of forecast error, the Median APE and an M-estimator. In addition to accuracy, the paper also investigates forecast bias.

Publication Date: 
03/31/2005
Author(s): 
Rayer, Stefan
Pages: 
41 pages
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