Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts

Publication Date: 
Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Small area population forecasts are used for a wide variety of planning and budgeting purposes.
Using 1970–2005 data for incorporated places and unincorporated areas in Florida, we evaluate
the accuracy of forecasts made with several extrapolation techniques, averages, and composite
methods, and assess the effects of differences in population size, growth rate, and length of
forecast horizon on forecast errors. We further investigate the impact of adjusting forecasts to
account for changes in special populations and annexations. The findings presented in this study
will help practitioners make informed decisions when they construct and analyze small area
population forecasts.

Pages: 
46
Publication Types: 
BEBR Division: