Evaluation of Population Forecast Errors for Florida and Its Counties, 1980 – 2010

Publication Date: 
Friday, July 29, 2011

The Bureau of Economic and Business Research Population Program, under contract with the Florida Legislature, has been making three sets of population projections (low, medium, and high) for Florida and its counties for many years. Many decisions in both the public and private sectors are based on expectations of future population change. Planning for schools, hospitals, shopping centers, housing developments, electric power plants, and many other projects is strongly influenced by expected population growth or decline. The distribution of government funds and the granting of various types of licenses and permits may be affected as well. Given their many uses, it is essential to evaluate the accuracy of these projections. In this report, members of the BEBR Population Program investigate the accuracy of several sets of state and county population projections published by BEBR over the last 30 years.

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