Journal Article

Expert testimony in adversarial legal proceedings: Some tips for demographers

Many business, political, and personal disputes in the United States are settled only after passing through the nation's judicial or regulatory system. The culmination of this process is frequently a hearing or triaI in which the opposing parties argue the merits of the case. Demographic factors play a critical role in many of these disputes and demographers are often called upon to testify in hearings or trials. This article discusses the role of the demographer as expert witness and offers some tips on how to prepare and present expert testimony.

A regression approach to estimating the average number of persons per household

In the housing unit method, population is calculated as the number of households times the average number of persons per household (PPH), plus the population residing in group quarters facilities. Estimates of households and the group quarters population can be derived directly from concurrent data series, but estimates of PPH have traditionally been based on previous values or estimates for larger areas. In our study, we developed several regression models in which PPH estimates were based on symptomatic indicators of PPH change.

An evaluation of population projections by age

A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy ofprojections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in Florida.

An evaluation of population estimates in Florida: April 1, 2000

The housing unit (HU) method is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States. These estimates are used for a wide variety of budgeting, planning, and analytical purposes. Given their importance, periodic evaluations of their accuracy are essential. In this article, we evaluate the accuracy of a set of HU population estimates for counties and subcounty areas in Florida, as of April 1, 2000.

Snowbirds, Sunbirds, and Stayers: Seasonal migration of elderly adults in Florida

The temporary migration of elderly adults has a major impact on the resident populations of both sending and receiving communities. This article presents a methodology for estimating temporary migration and provides insights into migratory patterns that cannot be achieved by focusing solely on changes in place of usual residence.

Fleeing the storm(s): An examination of evacuation behavior during Florida’s 2004 hurricane season

The 2004 hurricane season was the worst in Florida’s history, with four hurricanes causing at least 47 deaths and some $45 billion in damages. In order to collect information on the demographic impact of those hurricanes, we surveyed households throughout the state and in the local areas sustaining the greatest damage. We estimate that one-quarter of Florida’s population evacuated prior to at least one hurricane; in some areas, well over half the residents evacuated at least once and many evacuated several times.

Temporary migration: A case study of Florida

Most migration statistics in the United States focus on changes in permanent residence, thereby missing temporary moves such as the daily commute to work, business trips, vacations, and seasonal migration. In this paper, we analyze temporary migration streams in Florida, focusing on moves that include an extended stay. Using several types of survey data, we examine the characteristics of non-Floridians who spend part of the year in Florida and Floridians who spend part of the year elsewhere.

Aging and Disability

The elderly population of the United States is large and growing rapidly. In 2000, there were 35 million persons aged 65 and older, making up 12% of the total population. This population is projected to exceed 86 million by 2050, making up 21% of the total (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). The oldest segment of the elderly population is growing particularly rapidly, with the population aged 85 and over projected to grow more than five-fold between 2000 and 2050, from 4 million to 21 million.

Demographic effects of natural disasters: A case study of Hurricane Andrew

Many studies have considered the economic, social, and psychological effects of hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and other natural disasters, but few have considered their demographic effects. In this paper we describe and evaluate a method for measuring the effects on Hurricane Andrew on the housing stock and population distribution in Dade County, Florida

Demography of disaster: Population estimates after Hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for fast-food restuarants.


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